Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg
Halmstad go head-to-head with Sirius on August 2, 2026 in the Champions League UEFA. Third qualifying round. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Halmstad 0-1-3, Sirius 3-1-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Sirius — 68%
Pure model vs market (2 · Sirius): model 60% · market 69% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Halmstad 13.1%, draw 18.7%, win Sirius 68.1%. Model favourite — Sirius.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Source: sstats_content
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.11 47.4% |
| yes | 1.65 60.6% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.11 90.1% | 1.15 87.0% |
| 1x | 2.85 35.1% | 2.90 34.5% |
| x2 | 1.03 97.1% | 1.07 93.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 6.40 15.6% | |
| X | 2.72 36.8% |
| 1.74 57.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.02 49.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.65 60.6% |
Halmstad
Yurgorden
Vesteros
Sirius
Geteborg
Elfsborg
Melbyu
Full head-to-head historyHalmstad - Sirius
The Halmstad - Sirius breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
