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Sweden. Division 3. Vastra Gotaland
Sweden. Division 3. Vastra Gotaland
30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Not started

Sweden. Division 3. Vastra Gotaland

Boljan - Vastra Frolunda

Football
Boljan
Boljan
- : -
Not started
V
Vastra Frolunda
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Vastra Frolunda — 47%

Pure model vs market (2 · Vastra Frolunda): model 31% · market 48% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Boljan30.4%
X · draw22.8%
2 · Vastra Frolunda46.8%

Model estimate: win Boljan 30.4%, draw 22.8%, win Vastra Frolunda 46.8%. Model favourite — Vastra Frolunda.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Vastra Frolunda (odds1.90) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Frelunda: probability 50% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
  • • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Boljan - Vastra Frolunda July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Vastra Frolunda. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.11 / X 4.00 / 2 1.91

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 29.4%
X 22.8%
2 47.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Match center

Boljan - Vastra Frolunda

Form 1/2 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Boljan 29.4% 30.4%
Draw 22.8% 22.8% draw risk
Vastra Frolunda 47.8% 46.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.4% / 22.8% / 46.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,515 / 1,470 Boljan / Vastra Frolunda
RD 288 / 261 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 939-2,091 / 948-1,993 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 46.8%
X 3.98 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.10 market consensus · no value · model 30.4%
Double chance
12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%
1X 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 53.2%
X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 69.6%
Handicap
2 0 1.49 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.42 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.39 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.78 36.0%
yes 1.39 71.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3%
1x 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6%
x2 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.42 29.2%
X 2.47 40.5%
2.43 41.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.03 49.3%
Under 1.5 1.70 58.8%
Match center
Boljan
D
14.06 09:00 UTC Sweden: Second Division - Zapadnyy Getalend Standings
Boljan 1:1 Frelunda
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points
Vastra Frolunda
D D
14.06 09:00 UTC Sweden: Second Division - Zapadnyy Getalend Standings
Vastra Frolunda 1:1 ByulyanByulyan
31.05 09:00 UTC Sweden: Second Division - Zapadnyy Getalend Standings
Vastra Frolunda 1:1 DalstorpDalstorp
0 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBoljan - Vastra Frolunda

Boljan
1 matches total
Vastra Frolunda
Boljan: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Vastra Frolunda: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 14.06 09:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (14.06 09:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.06 09:00 UTC Sweden: Second Division - Zapadnyy Getalend Standings
Byulyan
1:1
Frelunda