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Start
21.10.2025 19:00 UTC
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21.10.2025 19:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid
4
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Arsenal - Atletico Madrid October 21, 2025
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.
Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.57 / X 4.10 / 2 6.08
- 1X2 market: Arsenal 61.0% / X 23.3% / Atletico Madrid 15.8%
- Total 2.5: over probability 51.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.5%
1
60.9%
X
23.3%
2
15.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 3.9%
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.08
market consensus · line only
X
4.10
market consensus · line only
1
1.57
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.45
market consensus · line only
12
1.24
market consensus · line only
1X
1.13
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.49
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.91
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
5.78
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.55
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.89
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.96
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.83
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.92
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 65.4% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.60 62.5% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.24 23.6% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% |
| 6.00 16.7% | 5.80 17.2% | 6.27 16.0% | 5.75 17.4% | 6.00 16.7% | 6.20 16.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.77 56.5% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.88 53.2% |
| yes | 1.93 51.8% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.99 50.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.40 41.7% | 2.46 40.7% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.51 39.8% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.26 79.4% |
| home_draw | 1.12 89.3% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.14 87.7% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | 1.25 80.0% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.31 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.20 31.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.60 27.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.91 52.4% | 2.01 49.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | — |
Match center
Arsenal
W
W
L
L
W
Arsenal
2:0
Olympiakos Piraeus
Arsenal
2:0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Arsenal
1:2
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
0:1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
2:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
9
Points
Atletico Madrid
W
L
L
L
W
Atletico Madrid
5:1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
Atletico Madrid
2:3
Liverpul
Liverpul
Atletico Madrid
1:3
Lille
Lille
Atletico Madrid
0:4
Benfica
Benfica
Atletico Madrid
2:1
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
2.0
Scored
2.4
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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