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UEFA Champions League World

semi-final. 2 match 05.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

05.05.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Champions League

Arsenal - Atletico Madrid

World Football

Stadium Emireyts

Referee D. Siebert

Arsenal

1 : 0

Finished

Atletico Madrid

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Arsenal — 57%

1 · Arsenal ✓ Pick57.3%

X · draw21.5%

2 · Atletico Madrid21.2%

Model estimate: win Arsenal 57.3%, draw 21.5%, win Atletico Madrid 21.2%. Model favourite — Arsenal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Atletico Madrid May 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Strongest: Arsenal - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.61 / X 4.17 / 2 5.28
1X2 market: Arsenal 59.1% / X 22.9% / Atletico Madrid 18.1%
Glicko: Arsenal 57.3% / X 21.5% / Atletico Madrid 21.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 ✓ Pick 59.1%

X 22.8%

2 18.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%

Over 2.5 50.3%

Under 2.5 49.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 6/6

Confidence 62.5%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Emireyts (London, England), 58 874 zritelya (98% pri vmestimosti 60 383)

Referee Daniel Zibert (Berlin)

Start 05.05.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Arsenal 57%

💹 Market Arsenal 5905%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Arsenal - Atletico Madrid

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Arsenal - Atletiko M, 5 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Champions League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 2 match. Arsenal - Atletiko M, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 14

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

0' 0' Yellow Card | K. Arrizabalaga Kepa Arrizabalaga Arsenal

44' 44' Normal Goal | B. Saka B. Saka Arsenal

57' 57' Substitution 4 | A. Lookman | assist/sub out: N. Molina A. Lookman Atletico Madrid

57' 57' Substitution 5 | G. Simeone | assist/sub out: J. Cardoso G. Simeone Atletico Madrid

57' 57' Substitution 3 | A. Lookman | assist/sub out: N. Molina A. Lookman Atletico Madrid

58' 58' Substitution 3 | B. Saka | assist/sub out: N. Madueke B. Saka Arsenal

58' 58' Substitution 4 | R. Calafiori | assist/sub out: P. Hincapie R. Calafiori Arsenal

59' 59' Substitution 5 | E. Eze | assist/sub out: M. Odegaard E. Eze Arsenal

Metric Arsenal Atletico Madrid SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.56 0.99 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final

Shots off target 8 4 final

Shots on target 2 2 final

Udary vsego 13 9 final

Fouls soversheno 10 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 1 2 final

Arsenal #1 D. Raya, #14 Viktor Gyökeres, #19 L. Trossard, #33 R. Calafiori, #49 Myles Lewis-Skelly, #6 Gabriel, #10 E. Eze, #41 D. Rice, #2 W. Saliba, #7 B. Saka, #4 B. White

Atletico Madrid #3 Matteo Ruggeri, #13 J. Oblak, #19 J. Alvarez, #22 A. Lookman, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #17 D. Hancko, #14 M. Llorente, #24 R. Le Normand, #18 M. Pubill, #20 G. Simeone

Player Team Metric SStats

B. Saka Arsenal football.player.assists 0

B. Saka Arsenal football.player.goals 1

B. Saka Arsenal football.player.minutes_played 58

B. White Arsenal football.player.assists 0

B. White Arsenal football.player.minutes_played 90

D. Raya Arsenal football.player.assists 0

D. Raya Arsenal football.player.minutes_played 90

D. Rice Arsenal football.player.assists 0

D. Rice Arsenal football.player.minutes_played 90

E. Eze Arsenal football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Arsenal 59.8% 57.3% market and model agree

Draw 23.0% 21.5% draw risk

Atletico Madrid 17.2% 21.2%

xG - 1.99 : 1.13

Total 2.5 Over 52.6% - Under 47.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 57.3% / 21.5% / 21.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,988 / 1,818 Arsenal / Atletico Madrid

RD 118 / 100 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.28 market consensus · no value · model 21.2%

X 4.17 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 57.3%

Double chance

X2 2.33 market consensus · no value · model 42.7%

12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 78.5%

1X 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 78.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.37 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.82 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.93 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 52.6%

Under 2.5 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 47.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.60 62.5%	1.64 61.0%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.65 60.6%	1.60 62.5%
X	4.10 24.4%	4.38 22.8%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.20 23.8%	4.33 23.1%
	5.00 20.0%	5.59 17.9%	5.00 20.0%	5.00 20.0%	5.60 17.9%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.85 54.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.87 53.5%	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.91 52.4%
yes	1.90 52.6%	2.01 49.8%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.87 53.5%	1.93 51.8%	2.01 49.8%	1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.30 43.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.14 87.7%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.18 84.8%	1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.33 75.2%
Over 2.0	—	1.42 70.4%
Over 2.25	—	1.74 57.5%
Over 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 3.5	3.20 31.3%	—
Over 4.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.60 27.8%	—
Under 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 3.5	1.33 75.2%	—
Under 4.5	1.11 90.1%	—

Match center

Arsenal

Founded 1886

Atletico Madrid

Founded 1903

Match center

Arsenal

KH K. Havertz Knee Injury

MØ M. Ødegaard Knee Injury

Atletico Madrid

NG N. González Muscle Injury

PB Pablo Barrios Muscle Injury

Mikel Merino Yurrien Timber Travmirovannye Nikolas Gonsales Pablo Barrios

Arsenal Founded: 1886

Atletico Madrid Founded: 1903

Match center

Arsenal

D D W W D

29.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1:1 Atletiko Madrid

15.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 0:0 Sporting CP

07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1:0 Sporting CP

17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 2:0 Bayer Leverkusen

11.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

2 Wins

3 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.4 Conceded

9 Points

Atletico Madrid

D L W L W

29.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 1:1 Arsenal

14.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 1:2 Barselona

08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 2:0 Barselona

18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Tottenkhem

10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 5:2 Tottenkhem

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Atletico Madrid

Arsenal

2 matches total

Atletico Madrid

Arsenal: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Arsenal 4:0 (21.10 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 21.10 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (29.04 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 5

Match history

29.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

1:1

Atletiko Madrid

21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

4:0

Atletiko Madrid

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Arsenal

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Atletico Madrid

13 Games 15

10 Wins 7

3 Draws 3

0 Losses 5

28 Scored 35

6 Conceded 27

33 Points 24

103.85 Attacks 88.93

54.31 Dangerous attacks 45.86

0 Big chances 0

14.62 Shots on goal 14.93

6.23 Shots on target 5.87

0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Bukayo Saka Leandro Trossard 1:0 45' Nakazaniya Mark Pubil 81' Koke 90+4' Kepa Arrisabalaga 90+5'

Arsenal Atletiko M 13 Games 15 10 Wins 7 3 Draws 3 0 Losses 5 28 Scored 35 6 Conceded 27 33 Points 24 103.85 Attacks 88.93 54.31 Dangerous attacks 45.86 0 Big chances 0 14.62 Shots on goal 14.93 6.23 Udary v stvor 5.87 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.38 Uglovye 5.53 1.46 Offsaydy 1.27 11.77 Foly 10.87 54.54 % vladeniya myachom 49.33 1.62 Warnings 1.6 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Bukayo Saka Leandro Trossard 1:0 45' Nakazaniya Mark Pubil 81' Koke 90+4' Kepa Arrisabalaga 90+5'