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UEFA Champions League World

quarter-final. 2 match 15.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

15.04.2026 19:00 UTC quarter-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Champions League

Arsenal - Sporting CP

World Football

Stadium Emireyts

Arsenal

0 : 0

Finished

Sporting CP

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Arsenal — 61%

1 · Arsenal ✓ Pick60.9%

market62%

X · draw21.0%

market22%

2 · Sporting CP18.2%

market16%

Model estimate: win Arsenal 60.9%, draw 21.0%, win Sporting CP 18.2%. Model favourite — Arsenal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arsenal - Sporting CP April 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Strongest: Arsenal - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.54 / X 4.31 / 2 6.12
1X2 market: Arsenal 62.1% / X 22.2% / Sporting CP 15.7%
Glicko: Arsenal 60.9% / X 21.0% / Sporting CP 18.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 45.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%

1 ✓ Pick 62.2%

X 22.2%

2 15.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 51.8%

Under 2.5 48.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 63.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Emireyts (London, England), 58 249 zriteley (96% pri vmestimosti 60 383)

Referee Fransua Letekse

Start 15.04.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Arsenal 61%

💹 Market Arsenal 6214%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Arsenal - Sporting CP

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Arsenal - Sporting, 15 aprelya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Champions League UEFA 2025/2026, quarter-final. 2 match. Arsenal - Sporting, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:0

Events 10

Statistics 24

Lineups 36

min Event Player Team

56' 56' Substitution 1 | V. Gyökeres | assist/sub out: K. Havertz Nathan Qi Arsenal

63' 63' Substitution 3 | N. Madueke | assist/sub out: M. Dowman Arsenal

71' 71' Substitution 2 | P. Goncalves | assist/sub out: D. Braganca Ahniya Vustsina Sporting CP

71' 71' Substitution 3 | G. Catamo | assist/sub out: G. Quenda Sporting CP

77' 77' Substitution 4 | H. Morita | assist/sub out: J. Simoes Sporting CP

79' 79' Yellow Card | M. Araujo Sporting CP

79' 79' Substitution 14 | E. Eze | assist/sub out: Gabriel Jesus Aaron Eliscu Arsenal

79' 79' Substitution 15 | G. Martinelli | assist/sub out: L. Trossard Arsenal

Metric Arsenal Sporting CP SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.64 0.29 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 1 final

Shots off target 8 6 final

Shots on target 1 1 final

Udary vsego 15 8 final

Fouls soversheno 7 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final

Offsides 0 1 final

Arsenal #1 D. Raya, #2 W. Saliba, #3 C. Mosquera, #5 P. Hincapié, #6 Gabriel, #10 E. Eze, #11 G. Martinelli, #14 Viktor Gyökeres, #20 N. Madueke, #36 M. Zubimendi, #41 D. Rice

Sporting CP #5 H. Morita, #8 Pote, #17 Francisco Trincão, #20 Maximiliano Araújo, #25 Gonçalo Inácio, #42 M. Hjulmand, #72 Eduardo Quaresma, #97 Luis Javier Suárez

Player Team Metric SStats

B. White Arsenal Seyvy 0

C. Mosquera Arsenal football.player.assists 0

C. Mosquera Arsenal Dribling popytki 2

C. Mosquera Arsenal Edinoborstva vyigrano 7

C. Mosquera Arsenal Fouls soversheno 2

C. Mosquera Arsenal Seyvy 0

C. Mosquera Arsenal football.player.minutes_played 90

C. Mosquera Arsenal Klyuchevye pasy 37

C. Mosquera Arsenal Reyting (staryy) 6.6

C. Mosquera Arsenal Otbory vsego 33

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Arsenal 65.4% 60.9% market and model agree

Draw 21.2% 21.0% draw risk

Sporting CP 13.4% 18.2%

xG - 2.03 : 1.01

Total 2.5 Over 45.0% - Under 55.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 60.9% / 21.0% / 18.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 2,031 / 1,773 Arsenal / Sporting CP

RD 127 / 112 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.12 market consensus · no value · model 18.2%

X 4.31 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 60.9%

Double chance

X2 2.48 market consensus · no value · model 39.2%

12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 79.1%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.49 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.91 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.40 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 45.0%

Under 2.5 1.98 market consensus · value +8.9% · model 55.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.54 64.9%	1.47 68.0%	1.58 63.3%	1.55 64.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%
X	4.10 24.4%	4.75 21.1%	4.47 22.4%	4.33 23.1%	4.30 23.3%	4.33 23.1%
	5.70 17.5%	6.70 14.9%	6.35 15.8%	5.75 17.4%	6.00 16.7%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.99 50.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	2.00 50.0%	1.85 54.1%	1.87 53.5%	1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	2.45 40.8%	2.56 39.1%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.50 40.0%	2.40 41.7%
home_away	1.18 84.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.12 89.3%	1.15 87.0%	1.14 87.7%	1.16 86.2%	1.10 90.9%	1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—	1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.30 76.9%
Over 2.5	1.83 54.6%	—	—
Over 2.75	—	2.01 49.8%	—
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—	—
Over 4.5	5.75 17.4%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.70 27.0%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.95 51.3%	—	—
Under 2.75	—	1.89 52.9%	—
Under 3.5	1.36 73.5%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—	—

Match center

Arsenal

Founded 1886

Sporting CP

Founded 1906

Match center

Arsenal

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Sporting CP

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Mikel Merino Travmirovannye Luys Gilerme Nunu Santush Fotis Ioannidis Ivan Fresneda

Arsenal Founded: 1886

Sporting CP Founded: 1906

Match center

Arsenal

W W D W W

07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1:0 Sporting CP

17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 2:0 Bayer Leverkusen

11.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 3:2 Kairat Almaty

20.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal 3:1 Inter

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

Sporting CP

L W L W W

07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP 0:1 Arsenal

17.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP 3:0 Bodo/Glimt

11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP 0:3 Bodo/Glimt

28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP 3:2 Athletic Club

20.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP 2:1 Paris Saint Germain

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyArsenal - Sporting CP

Arsenal

1 matches total

Sporting CP

Arsenal: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sporting CP: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Arsenal 1:0 (07.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 07.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

1:0

Sporting CP

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Arsenal

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Sporting CP

11 Games 11

10 Wins 6

1 Draws 1

0 Losses 4

27 Scored 22

5 Conceded 15

31 Points 19

102.45 Attacks 85

53.64 Dangerous attacks 45.89

0 Big chances 0

15.27 Shots on goal 13.64

7.09 Shots on target 5.55

Sootnoshenie statisticheskikh dannykh komand Arsenal Sporting 11 Games 11 10 Wins 6 1 Draws 1 0 Losses 4 27 Scored 22 5 Conceded 15 31 Points 19 102.45 Attacks 85 53.64 Dangerous attacks 45.89 0 Big chances 0 15.27 Shots on goal 13.64 7.09 Udary v stvor 5.55 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.55 Uglovye 4.82 1.64 Offsaydy 1.45 1

Arsenal Sporting 11 Games 11 10 Wins 6 1 Draws 1 0 Losses 4 27 Scored 22 5 Conceded 15 31 Points 19 102.45 Attacks 85 53.64 Dangerous attacks 45.89 0 Big chances 0 15.27 Shots on goal 13.64 7.09 Udary v stvor 5.55 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.55 Uglovye 4.82 1.64 Offsaydy 1.45 12.27 Foly 10.82 55.09 % vladeniya myachom 50.64 1.91 Warnings 2.18 0 Sendoffs 0 Nakazaniya Maksimiliano Khaver Araukho Vilches 79'