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UEFA Champions League World

quarter-final. 2 match 14.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

14.04.2026 19:00 UTC quarter-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid - Barcelona

World Football

Stadium Riyad Eyr Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid

1 : 2

Finished

Barcelona

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Barcelona — 55%

1 · Atletico Madrid24.1%

X · draw20.8%

2 · Barcelona ✓ Pick55.2%

Model estimate: win Atletico Madrid 24.1%, draw 20.8%, win Barcelona 55.2%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletico Madrid - Barcelona April 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.76 / X 4.46 / 2 1.80
1X2 market: Atletico Madrid 25.4% / X 21.5% / Barcelona 53.2%
Glicko: Atletico Madrid 24.1% / X 20.8% / Barcelona 55.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 45.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%

1 25.4%

X 21.4%

2 ✓ Pick 53.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%

Over 2.5 70.2%

Under 2.5 29.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 6/6

Confidence 57.8%

Total Over 2.5

Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Sivitas Metropolitano (Madrid, Spain), 69 268 zriteley (98% pri vmestimosti 70 460)

Referee Kleman Tyurpen (Ullen)

Start 14.04.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Barcelona 55%

💹 Market Barcelona 5316%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Atletico Madrid - Barcelona

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Atletiko M - Barcelona, 14 aprelya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Champions League UEFA 2025/2026, quarter-final. 2 match. Atletiko M - Barcelona, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 16

Statistics 26

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

4' 4' Normal Goal | Lamine Yamal | assist/sub out: F. Torres Barcelona

24' 24' Normal Goal | F. Torres | assist/sub out: D. Olmo Ryan Yates Barcelona

31' 31' Normal Goal Atletico Madrid

57' 57' Goal cancelled | F. Torres Ryan Yates Barcelona

66' 66' Substitution 8 | Giuliano Simeone | assist/sub out: A. Baena Atletico Madrid

66' 66' Substitution 7 | Giuliano Simeone | assist/sub out: A. Baena Atletico Madrid

68' 68' Substitution 7 | F. Torres | assist/sub out: R. Lewandowski Ryan Yates Barcelona

68' 68' Substitution 8 | Fermín | assist/sub out: M. Rashford Barcelona

Metric Atletico Madrid Barcelona SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.77 2.22 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final

Shots off target 6 3 final

Shots on target 5 8 final

Udary vsego 15 15 final

Fouls soversheno 15 8 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final

Atletico Madrid #2 João Cancelo, #6 Gavi, #7 F. Torres, #8 Pedri, #10 Lamine Yamal, #13 J. Garcia, #16 Fermín, #18 G. Martin, #20 D. Olmo, #23 J. Kounde, #24 E. Garcia

Barcelona #1 J. Musso, #3 Matteo Ruggeri, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #14 M. Llorente, #15 Clément Lenglet, #16 N. Molina, #19 J. Alvarez, #20 G. Simeone, #22 A. Lookman, #24 R. Le Normand

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Baena Barcelona football.player.assists 0

A. Baena Barcelona Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

A. Baena Barcelona Seyvy 0

A. Baena Barcelona football.player.minutes_played 24

A. Baena Barcelona Klyuchevye pasy 5

A. Baena Barcelona Reyting (staryy) 7

A. Baena Barcelona Shots on target 1

A. Baena Barcelona Perekhvaty 1

A. Baena Barcelona Otbory vsego 3

A. Lookman Barcelona football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atletico Madrid 24.9% 24.1%

Draw 22.0% 20.8% draw risk

Barcelona 53.2% 55.2% market and model agree

xG - 1.36 : 2.13

Total 2.5 Over 45.5% - Under 54.6%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 24.1% / 20.8% / 55.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,830 / 1,810 Atletico Madrid / Barcelona

RD 107 / 113 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 55.2%

X 4.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.76 market consensus · no value · model 24.1%

Double chance

X2 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 75.9%

12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 79.2%

1X 2.02 market consensus · no value · model 44.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.27 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.76 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 45.5%

Under 2.5 3.15 market consensus · weak value +71.8% · model 54.6%

Both teams to score

No 2.99 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.36 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%	3.84 26.0%	3.75 26.7%	3.85 26.0%	3.75 26.7%
X	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%	4.58 21.8%	4.60 21.7%	4.65 21.5%	4.50 22.2%
	1.75 57.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.82 55.0%	1.80 55.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.90 34.5%	3.15 31.8%	3.04 32.9%	3.00 33.3%	2.82 35.5%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	2.98 33.6%	3.10 32.3%
yes	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.34 74.6%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.33 75.2%	1.34 74.6%	1.35 74.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%	1.30 76.9%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%
home_away	1.15 87.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.21 82.6%	1.14 87.7%	1.18 84.8%
home_draw	2.00 50.0%	2.04 49.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.07 48.3%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5	1.09 91.7%	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 2.0	—	—	1.09 91.7%
Over 2.25	—	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 2.5	1.33 75.2%	—	—
Over 3.5	1.90 52.6%	1.93 51.8%	—
Over 4.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Over 5.5	5.25 19.1%	—	—
Under 1.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
Under 2.5	3.20 31.3%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.85 54.1%	1.97 50.8%	—
Under 4.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.15 87.0%	—	—

Match center

Atletico Madrid

Founded 1903

Barcelona

Founded 1899

Match center

Atletico Madrid

JO J. Oblak Muscle Injury

JG J. Giménez Injury

Barcelona

R Raphinha Thigh Injury

AC A. Christensen Knee Injury

Pablo Barrios Khose Khimenes David Gantsko Travmirovannye Andreas Kristensen Khofre Torrents Rafinya Mark Bernal Diskvalifitsirovannye Mark Pubil CHAMP Pau Kubarsi CHAMP

Atletico Madrid Founded: 1903

Barcelona Founded: 1899

Match center

Atletico Madrid

W L W W D

08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 2:0 Barselona

18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 2:3 Tottenkhem

10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 5:2 Tottenkhem

24.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 4:1 Club Brugge KV

18.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid 3:3 Club Brugge KV

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

3.2 Scored

1.8 Conceded

10 Points

Barcelona

L W D W W

08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Barcelona 0:2 Atletiko Madrid

18.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League

Barcelona 7:2 Nyukasl

10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Barcelona 1:1 Nyukasl

28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Barcelona 4:1 FC Copenhagen

21.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Barcelona 4:2 Slavia Praha

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

3.2 Scored

1.6 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletico Madrid - Barcelona

Atletico Madrid

1 matches total

Barcelona

Atletico Madrid: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Barcelona: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Atletiko Madrid 2:0 (08.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 08.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Atletiko Madrid

2:0

Barselona

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Atletico Madrid

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Barcelona

13 Games 11

7 Wins 6

2 Draws 2

4 Losses 3

33 Scored 30

24 Conceded 19

23 Points 20

93.33 Attacks 119.67

47.83 Dangerous attacks 55.67

0 Big chances 0

14.69 Shots on goal 16.64

5.92 Shots on target 7.18

0 Sendoffs 0.18 Goly Lamin Yamal Ferran Torres 0:1 4' Ferran Torres Dani Olmo 0:2 24' Ademola Lukman Markos Lorente 1:2 31' Nakazaniya Gavi 70' Erik Garsiya 79' VAR Ferran Torres 55'

Atletiko M Barcelona 13 Games 11 7 Wins 6 2 Draws 2 4 Losses 3 33 Scored 30 24 Conceded 19 23 Points 20 93.33 Attacks 119.67 47.83 Dangerous attacks 55.67 0 Big chances 0 14.69 Shots on goal 16.64 5.92 Udary v stvor 7.18 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.77 Uglovye 4.91 1.46 Offsaydy 1.18 10.85 Foly 9.45 50 % vladeniya myachom 60.64 1.77 Warnings 1.91 0 Sendoffs 0.18 Goly Lamin Yamal Ferran Torres 0:1 4' Ferran Torres Dani Olmo 0:2 24' Ademola Lukman Markos Lorente 1:2 31' Nakazaniya Gavi 70' Erik Garsiya 79' VAR Ferran Torres 55'