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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
08.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
08.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

World Football
Stadium Kamp Nou
Barcelona
Barcelona
0 : 2
Finished
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barcelona — 61%

1 · Barcelona ✓ Pick61.0%
market62%
X · draw18.8%
market20%
2 · Atletico Madrid20.3%
market18%

Model estimate: win Barcelona 61.0%, draw 18.8%, win Atletico Madrid 20.3%. Model favourite — Barcelona.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barcelona - Atletico Madrid April 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Barcelona.

Strongest: Barcelona - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 4.85 / 2 5.32
  • 1X2 market: Barcelona 62.4% / X 19.7% / Atletico Madrid 17.9%
  • Glicko: Barcelona 61.0% / X 18.8% / Atletico Madrid 20.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 ✓ Pick 62.4%
X 19.7%
2 17.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 69.7%
Under 2.5 30.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 08.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Kamp Nou (Barselona)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Barcelona 61%
💹 Market Barcelona 6244%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

Barcelona: Win 1.53 Barcelona: Draw 4.75 Atletico Madrid Win: 5.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 19
Statistics 26
Lineups 42
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | J. Cancelo Nico González Barcelona
31' 31' Substitution 1 | Dávid Hancko | assist/sub out: Marc Pubill Atletico Madrid
31' 31' Yellow Card | Koke Mirra Andreeva Atletico Madrid
42' 42' Card upgrade | P. Cubarsi Barcelona
44' 44' Red Card | P. Cubarsi Barcelona
45' 45' Normal Goal | Julián Alvarez A. Bykov Atletico Madrid
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Marc Pubill Atletico Madrid
46' 46' Substitution 2 | R. Lewandowski | assist/sub out: Fermín Nicolas Villarroel Galindo Barcelona
Metric Barcelona Atletico Madrid SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.1 0.44 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 7 1 final
Shots on target 7 3 final
Udary vsego 18 5 final
Fouls soversheno 6 17 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Barcelona #2 João Cancelo, #5 P. Cubarsi, #8 Pedri, #9 R. Lewandowski, #10 Lamine Yamal, #13 J. Garcia, #14 M. Rashford, #18 G. Martin, #20 D. Olmo, #23 J. Kounde, #24 E. Garcia
Atletico Madrid #1 J. Musso, #3 Matteo Ruggeri, #6 Koke, #7 Antoine Griezmann, #14 M. Llorente, #16 N. Molina, #17 D. Hancko, #19 J. Alvarez, #20 G. Simeone, #22 A. Lookman, #24 R. Le Normand
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Balde Barcelona football.player.assists 0
A. Balde Barcelona Dribling popytki 1
A. Balde Barcelona Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Balde Barcelona Seyvy 0
A. Balde Barcelona football.player.minutes_played 8
A. Balde Barcelona Klyuchevye pasy 7
A. Balde Barcelona Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Balde Barcelona Bloki 1
A. Balde Barcelona Otbory vsego 7
D. Kochen Barcelona Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Barcelona 63.4% 61.0% market and model agree
Draw 19.4% 18.8% draw risk
Atletico Madrid 17.3% 20.3%
xG - 2.42 : 1.35
Total 2.5 Over 54.4% - Under 45.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 61.0% / 18.8% / 20.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,849 / 1,796 Barcelona / Atletico Madrid
RD 118 / 110 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.32 market consensus · no value · model 20.3%
X 4.85 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 61.0%
Double chance
X2 2.53 market consensus · no value · model 39.1%
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 81.2%
1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.57 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 54.4%
Under 2.5 3.10 market consensus · weak value +41.3% · model 45.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.51 66.2% 1.52 65.8% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7%
X 4.60 21.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.14 19.5% 4.60 21.7% 4.75 21.1% 5.00 20.0%
5.25 19.1% 5.10 19.6% 5.55 18.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.40 18.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.65 37.7% 2.73 36.6% 2.62 38.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.80 35.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.58 38.8%
yes 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.45 40.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.52 39.7% 2.50 40.0%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.10 90.9% — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 2.0 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 2.25 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.5 1.36 73.5% — —
Over 3.5 1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% —
Over 4.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Over 5.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 1.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 2.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Under 3.5 1.85 54.1% 1.96 51.0% —
Under 4.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 5.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Barcelona
Founded 1899
Atletico Madrid
Founded 1903
Match center
Barcelona
FD F. de Jong Hamstring Injury
R Raphinha Thigh Injury
Atletico Madrid
JC J. Cardoso Muscle Injury
PB Pablo Barrios Muscle Injury
Barcelona Founded: 1899
Atletico Madrid Founded: 1903
Match center
Barcelona
W D W W W
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Barcelona 7:2 NyukaslNyukasl
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Barcelona 1:1 NyukaslNyukasl
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Barcelona 4:1 FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen
21.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Barcelona 4:2 Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha
09.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Barcelona 2:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
13 Points
Atletico Madrid
L W W D L
18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 2:3 TottenkhemTottenkhem
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 5:2 TottenkhemTottenkhem
24.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 4:1 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
18.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 3:3 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 1:2 Bodo/Glimt
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
3.0 Scored
2.2 Conceded
7 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.