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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
06.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
06.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München - Paris Saint Germain

World Football
Stadium Alyants Arena
Referee J. Pinheiro
Bayern München
Bayern München
1 : 1
Finished
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bayern München — 58%

1 · Bayern München ✓ Pick57.7%
X · draw19.6%
2 · Paris Saint Germain22.8%

Model estimate: win Bayern München 57.7%, draw 19.6%, win Paris Saint Germain 22.8%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Paris Saint Germain May 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 5.09 / 2 4.13
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 58.2% / X 18.7% / Paris Saint Germain 23.1%
  • Glicko: Bayern München 57.7% / X 19.6% / Paris Saint Germain 22.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 44.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 ✓ Pick 58.2%
X 18.7%
2 23.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5 77.3%
Under 2.5 22.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 63.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 06.05.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Alyants Arena (Myunkhen)
Referee J. Pinheiro

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 58%
💹 Market Bayern München 5819%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bayern München - Paris Saint Germain

Bayern München: Win 1.60 Bayern München: Draw 5.50 Paris Saint Germain Win: 4.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 4.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 4.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München menshe 2.5: 1.80 Ind…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
3' 3' Normal Goal | O. Dembélé | assist/sub out: K. Kvaratskhelia Ousmane Dembélé Paris Saint Germain
8' 8' Yellow Card | Nuno Mendes Nuno Mendes Paris Saint Germain
33' 33' Yellow Card | J. Stanišić Josip Stanišić Bayern München
45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | K. Kvaratskhelia K. Kvaratskhelia Paris Saint Germain
65' 65' Substitution 1 | O. Dembélé | assist/sub out: B. Barcola Ousmane Dembélé Paris Saint Germain
67' 67' Substitution 1 | J. Stanišić | assist/sub out: A. Davies Josip Stanišić Bayern München
68' 68' Substitution 2 | J. Tah | assist/sub out: Kim Min-Jae Jonathan Tah Bayern München
76' 76' Substitution 2 | Fabián Ruiz | assist/sub out: Beraldo Fabián Ruiz Paris Saint Germain
Metric Bayern München Paris Saint Germain SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.41 1.06 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 5 final
Shots off target 7 3 final
Shots on target 6 7 final
Udary vsego 18 15 final
Fouls soversheno 11 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 3 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Bayern München #1 Manuel Neuer, #9 Harry Kane, #14 Luis Díaz, #44 Josip Stanišić, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović, #4 Jonathan Tah, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #10 J. Musiala, #2 Dayot Upamecano, #17 Michael Olise, #27 Konrad Laimer
Paris Saint Germain #7 K. Kvaratskhelia, #25 Nuno Mendes, #39 M. Safonov, #87 João Neves, #10 Ousmane Dembélé, #17 Vítinha, #51 Willian Pacho, #5 Marquinhos, #8 Fabián Ruiz, #14 Désiré Doué, #33 Warren Zaïre-Emery
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Davies Bayern München football.player.assists 1
A. Davies Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 29
Aleksandar Pavlović Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 96
Dayot Upamecano Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 85
Harry Kane Bayern München football.player.goals 1
Harry Kane Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 96
J. Musiala Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 79
Jonathan Tah Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 68
Joshua Kimmich Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 96
Josip Stanišić Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 67
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bayern München 59.0% 57.7% market and model agree
Draw 18.2% 19.6% draw risk
Paris Saint Germain 22.8% 22.8%
xG - 2.32 : 1.42
Total 2.5 Over 44.7% - Under 55.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 57.7% / 19.6% / 22.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,981 / 1,941 Bayern München / Paris Saint Germain
RD 111 / 99 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.13 market consensus · no value · model 22.8%
X 5.09 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 57.7%
Double chance
X2 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 80.4%
1X 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.88 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.85 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Under 2.5 4.11 market consensus · weak value +127.1% · model 55.3%
Both teams to score
No 3.41 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
X 4.90 20.4% 5.39 18.6% 4.80 20.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0%
4.00 25.0% 4.43 22.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.25 23.5% 4.10 24.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0% 3.50 28.6%
yes 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.28 78.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.25 44.4% 2.38 42.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.05 95.2% 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 2.5 1.22 82.0% —
Over 3.5 1.60 62.5% —
Over 4.5 2.35 42.6% —
Over 5.5 3.85 26.0% —
Over 6.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 9.00 11.1% —
Under 2.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 3.5 2.30 43.5% —
Under 4.5 1.57 63.7% —
Under 5.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 6.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Bayern München
Founded 1900
Paris Saint Germain
Founded 1970
Match center
Bayern München
SG S. Gnabry Muscle Injury
WM W. Mike Hip Injury
Paris Saint Germain
AH A. Hakimi Thigh Injury
LC L. Chevalier Muscle Injury
Bayern München Founded: 1900
Paris Saint Germain Founded: 1970
Match center
Bayern München
L W W W W
28.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:5 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
15.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:3 Real MadridReal Madrid
07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:1 AtalantaAtalanta
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 6:1 AtalantaAtalanta
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
4.0 Scored
2.2 Conceded
12 Points
Paris Saint Germain
W W W W W
28.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 5:4 BavariyaBavariya
14.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 2:0 LiverpulLiverpul
08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 2:0 LiverpulLiverpul
17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 5:2 ChelseaChelsea
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - Paris Saint Germain

Bayern München
2 matches total
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Paris Saint Germain: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Paris Saint Germain 4:5 (28.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 9 goals (4:5, 28.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

28.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bavariya
4:5
Paris Saint Germain
04.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bavariya
2:1
Paris Saint Germain
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.