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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
15.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
15.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München - Real Madrid

World Football
Stadium Alyants Arena
Bayern München
Bayern München
4 : 3
Finished
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Bayern München — 62%

1 · Bayern München ✓ Pick61.6%
market63%
X · draw18.9%
market18%
2 · Real Madrid19.5%
market20%

Model estimate: win Bayern München 61.6%, draw 18.9%, win Real Madrid 19.5%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Real Madrid April 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 5.40 / 2 4.84
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 62.5% / X 17.7% / Real Madrid 19.7%
  • Glicko: Bayern München 61.6% / X 18.9% / Real Madrid 19.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%
1 ✓ Pick 62.5%
X 17.7%
2 19.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 77.3%
Under 2.5 22.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 62.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 15.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Alyants Arena (Myunkhen)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 62%
💹 Market Bayern München 6253%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bayern München - Real Madrid

Bayern München: Win 1.57 Bayern München: Draw 5.25 Real Madrid Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.67 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individual…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:3
Events 21
Statistics 26
Lineups 42
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | A. Guler Real Madrid
0' 0' Yellow Card | A. Guler Real Madrid
0' 0' Red Card | A. Guler Real Madrid
1' 1' Normal Goal | A. Guler Real Madrid
6' 6' Normal Goal | A. Pavlović | assist/sub out: J. Kimmich Bayern München
29' 29' Yellow Card | J. Stanisic Bayern München
29' 29' Normal Goal Real Madrid
38' 38' Normal Goal | H. Kane | assist/sub out: D. Upamecano Bayern München
Metric Bayern München Real Madrid SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.14 2.25 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 3 final
Shots off target 5 4 final
Shots on target 9 5 final
Udary vsego 21 12 final
Fouls soversheno 10 12 final
Red cards 0 2 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 6 final
Bayern München #1 Manuel Neuer, #2 Dayot Upamecano, #4 Jonathan Tah, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #7 S. Gnabry, #9 Harry Kane, #14 Luis Díaz, #17 Michael Olise, #27 Konrad Laimer, #44 Josip Stanišić, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović
Real Madrid #3 Eder Militao, #5 J. Bellingham, #7 Vinicius Junior, #8 F. Valverde, #10 K. Mbappe, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold, #13 A. Lunin, #15 Arda Güler, #21 B. Diaz, #22 A. Rüdiger, #23 F. Mendy
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Carreras Real Madrid Seyvy 0
A. Lunin Real Madrid football.player.assists 0
A. Lunin Real Madrid Seyvy 4
A. Lunin Real Madrid football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Lunin Real Madrid Klyuchevye pasy 33
A. Lunin Real Madrid Reyting 4
A. Lunin Real Madrid Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Lunin Real Madrid Otbory vsego 17
A. Rüdiger Real Madrid football.player.assists 0
A. Rüdiger Real Madrid Dribling popytki 3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bayern München 63.9% 61.6% market and model agree
Draw 18.4% 18.9% draw risk
Real Madrid 17.7% 19.5%
xG - 2.37 : 1.28
Total 2.5 Over 42.4% - Under 57.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 61.6% / 18.9% / 19.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 2,004 / 1,811 Bayern München / Real Madrid
RD 120 / 105 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.84 market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
X 5.40 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 61.6%
Double chance
X2 2.54 market consensus · no value · model 38.4%
12 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 81.1%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 80.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.54 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.43 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.20 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 42.4%
Under 2.5 4.16 market consensus · weak value +139.6% · model 57.6%
Both teams to score
No 3.23 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.32 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.49 67.1% 1.61 62.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7%
X 5.40 18.5% 5.00 20.0% 5.80 17.2% 5.75 17.4% 5.60 17.9% 5.50 18.2%
4.70 21.3% 4.55 22.0% 4.88 20.5% 4.75 21.1% 5.10 19.6% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4%
yes 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.29 77.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.60 38.5% 2.58 38.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.13 88.5% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.18 84.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Over 2.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Over 3.5 1.57 63.7% 1.78 56.2% —
Over 3.75 — 1.90 52.6% —
Over 4.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 5.5 3.60 27.8% — —
Over 6.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 1.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 2.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Under 3.5 2.38 42.0% 2.12 47.2% —
Under 3.75 — 2.00 50.0% —
Under 4.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 5.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 6.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Bayern München
Founded 1900
Real Madrid
Founded 1902
Match center
Bayern München
W W W W W
07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:1 AtalantaAtalanta
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 6:1 AtalantaAtalanta
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
21.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:0 Union St. Gilloise
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
15 Points
Real Madrid
L W W W W
07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1:2 BavariyaBavariya
17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:1 Manchester CityManchester City
11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 3:0 Manchester CityManchester City
25.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:1 BenficaBenfica
17.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1:0 BenficaBenfica
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - Real Madrid

Bayern München
1 matches total
Real Madrid
Bayern München: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Madrid: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Bavariya 2:1 (07.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 07.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bavariya
2:1
Real Madrid
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.