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Start
17.02.2026 20:00 UTC
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17.02.2026 20:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League
Benfica - Real Madrid
0
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Benfica - Real Madrid February 17, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.
Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.15 / X 3.66 / 2 2.18
- 1X2 market: Benfica 30.2% / X 26.1% / Real Madrid 43.7%
- Total 2.5: over probability 56.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.9%
1
30.3%
X
26.0%
2
43.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Benfica - Real Madrid
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.18
market consensus · line only
X
3.66
market consensus · line only
1
3.15
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.36
market consensus · line only
12
1.28
market consensus · line only
1X
1.70
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.38
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.13
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.15
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.18
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.68
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.20
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.35
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.56
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.10 32.3% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.36 29.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.20 31.3% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.79 26.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 2.15 46.5% | 2.17 46.1% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.22 45.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.35 42.6% | 2.41 41.5% | 2.26 44.3% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.42 41.3% |
| yes | 1.55 64.5% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.61 62.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.39 71.9% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.67 59.9% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.62 61.7% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.67 59.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Over 3.0 | — | 2.09 47.9% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.70 37.0% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.75 21.1% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 46.5% | — | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 2.03 49.3% | — |
| Under 3.0 | — | 1.81 55.3% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.45 69.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.18 84.8% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | — |
Match center
Benfica
W
L
W
W
L
Benfica
4:2
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Benfica
0:2
Juventus
Juventus
Benfica
2:0
Napoli
Napoli
Benfica
2:0
Ajax
Ajax
Benfica
0:1
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Real Madrid
L
W
L
W
L
Real Madrid
2:4
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
6:1
Monaco
Monaco
Real Madrid
1:2
Manchester City
Manchester City
Real Madrid
4:3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Real Madrid
0:1
Liverpul
Liverpul
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
2.6
Scored
2.2
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBenfica - Real Madrid
Benfica
1
matches total
Benfica: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Madrid: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Benfica 4:2 (28.01 20:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
6 goals (4:2, 28.01 20:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Benfica
4:2
Real Madrid
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