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UEFA Champions League World

28.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Champions League

Heart Of Midlothian - Sturm Graz

World Football

Heart Of Midlothian

- : -

Not started

Sturm Graz

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Heart Of Midlothian — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Heart Of Midlothian): model 39% · market 50% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Heart Of Midlothian54.2%

X · draw20.3%

2 · Sturm Graz25.4%

Model estimate: win Heart Of Midlothian 54.2%, draw 20.3%, win Sturm Graz 25.4%. Model favourite — Heart Of Midlothian.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Heart Of Midlothian (odds1.80) Score 2:1 confidence 53%

• Model backs Heart Of Midlothian: probability 53% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.80)
• no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Heart Of Midlothian - Sturm Graz July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Heart Of Midlothian. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.85 / X 3.81 / 2 3.62

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%

1 50.1%

X 24.3%

2 25.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Heart Of Midlothian 1 : 5 Sturm Graz

11.98

X3.85

23.77

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 28.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Heart Of Midlothian - Sturm Graz

Form 1/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Heart Of Midlothian 50.1% 54.2% market and model agree

Draw 24.3% 20.3% draw risk

Sturm Graz 25.6% 25.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 54.2% / 20.3% / 25.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,472 / 1,565 Heart Of Midlothian / Sturm Graz

RD 218 / 155 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,036-1,907 / 1,255-1,875 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.62 market consensus · no value · model 25.4%

X 3.81 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 54.2%

Handicap

2 +0.5 1.92 market consensus · line only

2 +1 1.57 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only

1 -1 2.31 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.33 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.56 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	2.33 42.9%
yes	1.56 64.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.36 42.4%
X	2.44 41.0%
	4.04 24.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5	1.61 62.1%

Handicap

Outcome	Leon
	1.82 55.0%
	2.31 43.3%
	1.92 52.1%
	1.57 63.7%

Match center

Heart Of Midlothian

Country Scotland

Sturm Graz

Country Austria

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1, avg 4.0 gls

2026-07-21 · Khart of Midlotian 0:4 Shturm Grats

Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.85 (Winline) · X 3.95 (Pari) · 2 3.9 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.8	3.95	3.9
Winline	1.85	3.8	3.65
Fonbet	1.8	3.95	3.9
Betcity	1.82	3.9	3.9

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Heart Of Midlothian

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Heart Of Midlothian 0:4 Sturm Graz

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

0.0 Scored

4.0 Conceded

0 Points

Sturm Graz

W W L L L

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz 4:0 Heart Of Midlothian

26.08 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz 2:1 Bodo/Glimt

20.08 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz 0:5 Bodo/Glimt

22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz 0:2 Sporting CP

02.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Sturm Graz 0:1 Club Brugge KV

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.8 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyHeart Of Midlothian - Sturm Graz

Heart Of Midlothian

1 matches total

Sturm Graz

Heart Of Midlothian: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sturm Graz: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Sturm Graz 0:4 (21.07 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 21.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Heart Of Midlothian

0:4

Sturm Graz