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UEFA Champions League World

28.07.2026 17:00 UTC

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UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan - Aarhus

World Football

Lech Poznan

- : -

Not started

Aarhus

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lech Poznan — 56%

Pure model vs market (1 · Lech Poznan): model 62% · market 55% Δ +7 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Lech Poznan ✓ Pick55.5%

X · draw24.3%

2 · Aarhus20.1%

Model estimate: win Lech Poznan 55.5%, draw 24.3%, win Aarhus 20.1%. Model favourite — Lech Poznan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lech Poznan (odds1.69) Score 2:1 Over 2.5 (odds1.73) confidence 56%

• liniya na pik P1 1.72→1.70 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
• Model backs Lech Poznan: probability 56% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.69)
• no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1
• Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.73).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lech Poznan - Aarhus July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lech Poznan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.70 / X 3.80 / 2 4.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.4%

1 ✓ Pick 54.8%

X 24.5%

2 20.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.72 ↓ 1.70

1X2 X 3.80 → 3.80

1X2 P2 4.50 ↑ 4.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 28.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Lech Poznan - Aarhus

Form 5/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lech Poznan 55.1% 55.5% market and model agree

Draw 24.7% 24.3% draw risk

Aarhus 20.2% 20.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 55.5% / 24.3% / 20.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,698 / 1,327 Lech Poznan / Aarhus

RD 136 / 262 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,425-1,971 / 803-1,850 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.50 Fonbet · no value · model 20.1%

X 3.80 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.70 Fonbet · no value · model 55.5%

Double chance

12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 75.7%

1X 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 79.9%

X2 2.10 Fonbet · no value · model 44.5%

Handicap

2 -1 1.62 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.06 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.10 Fonbet · line only

2 0 3.20 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.07 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	2.05 48.8%	2.04 49.0%
yes	1.72 58.1%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet
12	1.25 80.0%
1x	1.18 84.8%
x2	2.10 47.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.28 43.9%
X	2.33 42.9%
	4.71 21.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.65 60.6%
Under 1	2.16 46.3%

Match center

Lech Poznan

Country Poland

Aarhus

Country Denmark

Match center

Lech Poznan

W D L W W

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan 4:1 Aarhus

12.08 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan 1:1 FK Crvena Zvezda

06.08 18:30 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan 1:3 FK Crvena Zvezda

30.07 18:30 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan 1:0 Breidablik

22.07 18:30 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan 7:1 Breidablik

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Aarhus

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Aarhus 1:4 Lech Poznan

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

4.0 Conceded

0 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLech Poznan - Aarhus

Lech Poznan

1 matches total

Aarhus

Lech Poznan: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Aarhus: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Lech Poznan 4:1 (21.07 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 21.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

21.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan

4:1

Aarhus