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Start
17.03.2026 20:00 UTC
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17.03.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Manchester City - Real Madrid
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Manchester City - Real Madrid March 17, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.
Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.46 / X 5.48 / 2 5.47
- 1X2 market: Manchester City 65.2% / X 17.4% / Real Madrid 17.4%
- Total 2.5: over probability 68.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.0%
1
65.2%
X
17.4%
2
17.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5
68.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Manchester City - Real Madrid
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
2
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.47
market consensus · line only
X
5.48
market consensus · line only
1
1.46
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.75
market consensus · line only
12
1.16
market consensus · line only
1X
1.15
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.68
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.25
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
5.15
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.95
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.38
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.97
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.37
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.56
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44 69.4% | 1.46 68.5% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.50 66.7% | |
| X | 5.40 18.5% | 5.70 17.5% | 5.74 17.4% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.75 17.4% | 5.50 18.2% |
| 5.30 18.9% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.69 17.6% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.70 17.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.45 40.8% | 2.41 41.5% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.40 41.7% |
| yes | 1.50 66.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.65 37.7% | 2.78 36.0% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.67 37.5% | 2.70 37.0% |
| home_away | 1.11 90.1% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.13 88.5% |
| home_draw | 1.15 87.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | 1.07 93.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.09 91.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.25 | — | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 2.01 49.8% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 5.75 17.4% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — | — |
| Under 3.25 | — | 2.08 48.1% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.91 52.4% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.12 89.3% | — | — |
Match center
Manchester City
L
W
L
W
L
Manchester City
0:3
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Manchester City
2:0
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
Manchester City
1:3
Bodo/Glimt
Manchester City
2:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Manchester City
0:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.8
Conceded
6
Points
Real Madrid
W
W
W
L
W
Real Madrid
3:0
Manchester City
Manchester City
Real Madrid
2:1
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
1:0
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
2:4
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
6:1
Monaco
Monaco
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
12
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyManchester City - Real Madrid
Manchester City
2
matches total
Manchester City: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Real Madrid: 1 (50%)
Biggest win
Real Madrid 0:3 (11.03 20:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (0:3, 11.03 20:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Manchester City
0:3
Real Madrid
Manchester City
2:1
Real Madrid
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