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Start
24.02.2026 20:00 UTC
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24.02.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Newcastle - Qarabag
3
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Newcastle - Qarabag February 24, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Newcastle.
Line favourite market consensus: Newcastle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.15 / X 8.93 / 2 15.60
- 1X2 market: Newcastle 83.0% / X 10.7% / Qarabag 6.3%
- Total 2.5: over probability 74.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.6%
1
83.2%
X
10.7%
2
6.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5
74.1%
Under 2.5
25.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Newcastle - Qarabag
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
8.93
market consensus · line only
1
1.15
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
5.46
market consensus · line only
12
1.07
market consensus · line only
1X
1.03
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
5.53
market consensus · line only
2 -1
4.22
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.13
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.18
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.27
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
3.63
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.90
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.85
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 86.2% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | |
| X | 7.75 12.9% | 8.80 11.4% | 10.00 10.0% | 8.50 11.8% | 9.00 11.1% | 8.75 11.4% |
| 13.00 7.7% | 17.50 5.7% | 13.00 7.7% | 15.00 6.7% | 15.00 6.7% | 17.50 5.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% |
| yes | 1.83 54.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 5.00 20.0% | 5.35 18.7% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.50 18.2% |
| home_away | 1.07 93.5% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.05 95.2% |
| home_draw | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% | 1.02 98.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | — |
| Over 3.75 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Over 4.0 | — | 2.09 47.9% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 2.60 38.5% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 4.33 23.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 3.65 27.4% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.23 44.8% | — |
| Under 3.75 | — | 1.94 51.6% | — |
| Under 4.0 | — | 1.81 55.3% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.48 67.6% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — | — |
Match center
Newcastle
W
D
W
D
L
Newcastle
6:1
Qarabag
Qarabag
Newcastle
1:1
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Newcastle
3:0
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
Newcastle
2:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Newcastle
1:2
Marseille
Marseille
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
2.6
Scored
1.2
Conceded
8
Points
Qarabag
L
L
W
L
L
Qarabag
1:6
Nyukasl
Nyukasl
Qarabag
0:6
Liverpul
Liverpul
Qarabag
3:2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
Qarabag
2:4
Ajax
Ajax
Qarabag
0:2
Napoli
Napoli
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
1.2
Scored
4.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNewcastle - Qarabag
Newcastle
1
matches total
Newcastle: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Qarabag: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Nyukasl 6:1 (18.02 17:45 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
7 goals (6:1, 18.02 17:45 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Nyukasl
6:1
Qarabag
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