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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
28.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
28.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - Bayern München

World Football
Stadium Park de Prens
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
5 : 4
Finished
Bayern München
Bayern München
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Bayern München — 39%

1 · Paris Saint Germain38.6%
X · draw22.5%
2 · Bayern München38.9%

Model estimate: win Paris Saint Germain 38.6%, draw 22.5%, win Bayern München 38.9%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Bayern München April 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Line favourite market consensus: Paris Saint Germain. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.23 / X 3.86 / 2 2.84
  • 1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 42.3% / X 24.5% / Bayern München 33.2%
  • Glicko: Paris Saint Germain 38.6% / X 22.5% / Bayern München 38.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 79.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 42.3%
X 24.4%
2 33.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5 67.4%
Under 2.5 32.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 41.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 28.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Park de Prens (Parizh)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 39%
💹 Market Paris Saint Germain 4232%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Bayern München

Paris Saint Germain: Win 2.25 Paris Saint Germain: Draw 3.80 Bayern München Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain mensh…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 5:4
Events 21
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Yellow Card | Marquinhos Paris Saint Germain
17' 17' Penalty | H. Kane Bayern München
24' 24' Normal Goal | K. Kvaratskhelia | assist/sub out: D. Doue Hugo López Paris Saint Germain
33' 33' Normal Goal Paris Saint Germain
41' 41' Normal Goal | M. Olise Taylor Fritz Bayern München
45' 45' Penalty | O. Dembele Paris Saint Germain
45+3' 45+3' Penalty confirmed | O. Dembele Paris Saint Germain
46' 46' Substitution 2 | A. Davies | assist/sub out: K. Laimer Daniel Borges Bayern München
Metric Paris Saint Germain Bayern München SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.9 3.06 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 3 1 final
Shots on target 5 8 final
Udary vsego 12 10 final
Fouls soversheno 12 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 0 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Paris Saint Germain #2 Achraf Hakimi, #5 Marquinhos, #7 K. Kvaratskhelia, #10 Ousmane Dembélé, #14 Désiré Doué, #25 Nuno Mendes, #33 Warren Zaïre-Emery, #39 M. Safonov, #51 Willian Pacho, #87 João Neves
Bayern München #1 Manuel Neuer, #2 Dayot Upamecano, #4 Jonathan Tah, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #9 Harry Kane, #10 J. Musiala, #14 Luis Díaz, #17 Michael Olise, #19 A. Davies, #44 Josip Stanišić, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Davies Bayern München football.player.assists 0
A. Davies Bayern München Dribling popytki 3
A. Davies Bayern München Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Davies Bayern München Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Davies Bayern München Edinoborstva vyigrano 6
A. Davies Bayern München Fouls soversheno 1
A. Davies Bayern München Fouls na igroke 1
A. Davies Bayern München Seyvy 0
A. Davies Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 45
A. Davies Bayern München Klyuchevye pasy 25
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris Saint Germain 42.3% 38.6% market favourite
Draw 24.6% 22.5% draw risk
Bayern München 33.2% 38.9% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.71 : 1.72
Total 2.5 Over 79.1% - Under 20.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 38.6% / 22.5% / 38.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,921 / 2,007 Paris Saint Germain / Bayern München
RD 102 / 116 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.84 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.9%
X 3.86 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.23 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.6%
Double chance
X2 1.63 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.4%
12 1.24 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 77.5%
1X 1.41 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 61.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · value +10.0% · model 79.1%
Under 2.5 2.87 market consensus · no value · model 20.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.36 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.22 45.1% 2.33 42.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.15 46.5%
X 3.85 26.0% 4.01 24.9% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 3.85 26.0% 4.00 25.0%
2.80 35.7% 2.97 33.7% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.87 34.8% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.95 33.9% 2.98 33.6% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.93 34.1% 3.05 32.8%
yes 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.36 73.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.25 — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.5 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.75 — 1.44 69.4%
Over 3.5 2.00 50.0% —
Over 4.5 3.20 31.3% —
Over 5.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% —
Under 2.5 2.88 34.7% —
Under 3.5 1.80 55.6% —
Under 4.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 5.5 1.13 88.5% —
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
Founded 1970
Bayern München
Founded 1900
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
QN Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha Muscle Injury
Bayern München
RG Raphael Guerreiro Muscle Injury
SG S. Gnabry Muscle Injury
Paris Saint Germain Founded: 1970
Bayern München Founded: 1900
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
W W W W D
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Paris Saint Germain 2:0 LiverpulLiverpul
08.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 2:0 LiverpulLiverpul
17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 3:0 ChelseaChelsea
11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 5:2 ChelseaChelsea
25.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain 2:2 MonacoMonaco
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Bayern München
W W W W W
15.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:3 Real MadridReal Madrid
07.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 Real MadridReal Madrid
18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:1 AtalantaAtalanta
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 6:1 AtalantaAtalanta
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
15 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParis Saint Germain - Bayern München

Paris Saint Germain
1 matches total
Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayern München: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Bavariya 1:2 (04.11 20:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 04.11 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint Germain
1:2
Bavariya
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.