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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
08.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
08.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Paris Saint Germain - Liverpool

World Football
Stadium Park de Prens
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
2 : 0
Finished
Liverpool
Liverpool
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Paris Saint Germain — 52%

1 · Paris Saint Germain52.1%
X · draw21.8%
2 · Liverpool26.2%

Model estimate: win Paris Saint Germain 52.1%, draw 21.8%, win Liverpool 26.2%. Model favourite — Paris Saint Germain.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Paris Saint Germain - Liverpool April 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Paris Saint Germain.

Strongest: Paris Saint Germain - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.80 / X 4.09 / 2 4.03
  • 1X2 market: Paris Saint Germain 53.0% / X 23.3% / Liverpool 23.7%
  • Glicko: Paris Saint Germain 52.1% / X 21.8% / Liverpool 26.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 53.0%
X 23.3%
2 23.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.6%
Over 2.5 63.8%
Under 2.5 36.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 08.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Park de Prens (Parizh)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Paris Saint Germain 52%
💹 Market Paris Saint Germain 5298%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Paris Saint Germain - Liverpool

Paris Saint Germain: Win 1.80 Paris Saint Germain: Draw 4.00 Liverpool Win: 4.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain bolshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Paris Saint Germain menshe 1.5…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Normal Goal | D. Doué Paris Saint Germain
28' 28' Yellow Card | J. Gomez Liverpool
31' 31' Yellow Card | A. Mac Allister Uchenna Aririerisim Liverpool
65' 65' Normal Goal | K. Kvaratskhelia Hugo López Paris Saint Germain
71' 71' Penalty cancelled | W. Zaïre-Emery Paris Saint Germain
78' 78' Substitution 8 | F. Wirtz | assist/sub out: C. Gakpo Liverpool
78' 78' Substitution 9 | D. Szoboszlai | assist/sub out: C. Jones Merlin Röhl Liverpool
78' 78' Substitution 10 | M. Kerkez | assist/sub out: A. Robertson Liverpool
Metric Paris Saint Germain Liverpool SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.35 0.17 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final
Shots off target 6 1 final
Shots on target 6 0 final
Udary vsego 18 3 final
Fouls soversheno 8 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 1 2 final
Paris Saint Germain #2 Joe Gomez, #4 Virgil van Dijk, #5 I. Konate, #6 M. Kerkez, #7 F. Wirtz, #8 Dominik Szoboszlai, #10 A. Mac Allister, #22 H. Ekitike, #25 G. Mamardashvili, #30 J. Frimpong, #38 Ryan Gravenberch
Liverpool #2 Achraf Hakimi, #5 Marquinhos, #7 K. Kvaratskhelia, #10 Ousmane Dembélé, #14 Désiré Doué, #25 Nuno Mendes, #33 Warren Zaïre-Emery, #39 M. Safonov, #51 Willian Pacho, #87 João Neves
Player Team Metric SStats
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool football.player.assists 0
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Dribling popytki 4
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Dribling uspeshno 4
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Edinoborstva vsego 1
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Fouls na igroke 1
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Seyvy 0
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool football.player.minutes_played 90
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Klyuchevye pasy 79
Achraf Hakimi Liverpool Pasy vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Paris Saint Germain 53.6% 52.1% market and model agree
Draw 23.2% 21.8% draw risk
Liverpool 23.2% 26.2%
xG - 1.98 : 1.36
Total 2.5 Over 40.5% - Under 59.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 52.1% / 21.8% / 26.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,882 / 1,823 Paris Saint Germain / Liverpool
RD 110 / 123 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.03 market consensus · no value · model 26.2%
X 4.09 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 52.1%
Double chance
X2 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 48.0%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 78.2%
1X 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.61 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.79 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.93 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 40.5%
Under 2.5 2.59 market consensus · weak value +54.1% · model 59.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.55 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.48 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.15 24.1% 4.18 23.9% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8%
4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.18 23.9% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.10 24.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.67 37.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.55 39.2% 2.59 38.6%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0% — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.25 — 2.05 48.8% —
Over 3.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Over 4.5 3.70 27.0% — —
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.05 48.8% —
Under 3.25 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 3.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
Founded 1970
Liverpool
Founded 1892
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
FR Fabián Ruiz Knee Injury
BB B. Barcola Ankle Injury
Liverpool
AB Alisson Becker Injury
AI A. Isak Lacking Match Fitness
Paris Saint Germain Founded: 1970
Liverpool Founded: 1892
Match center
Paris Saint Germain
W W D W D
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Paris Saint Germain 3:2 MonacoMonaco
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Paris Saint Germain 1:1 NyukaslNyukasl
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
11 Points
Liverpool
W L W W W
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Liverpool 4:0 GalatasarayGalatasaray
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Liverpool 0:1 GalatasarayGalatasaray
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Liverpool 6:0 QarabagQarabag
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Liverpool 1:0 InterInter
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.8 Scored
0.2 Conceded
12 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.