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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
07.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
07.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid - Bayern München

World Football
Stadium Santyago Bernabeu
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
1 : 2
Finished
Bayern München
Bayern München
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Bayern München — 46%

1 · Real Madrid31.5%
X · draw22.2%
2 · Bayern München46.4%

Model estimate: win Real Madrid 31.5%, draw 22.2%, win Bayern München 46.4%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Bayern München April 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.67 / X 4.03 / 2 2.36
  • 1X2 market: Real Madrid 35.8% / X 23.7% / Bayern München 40.5%
  • Glicko: Real Madrid 31.5% / X 22.2% / Bayern München 46.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%
1 35.8%
X 23.7%
2 40.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 70.3%
Under 2.5 29.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/5
Confidence 53.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 07.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Santyago Bernabeu (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 46%
💹 Market Bayern München 4051%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Real Madrid - Bayern München

Real Madrid: Win 2.60 Real Madrid: Draw 4.10 Bayern München Win: 2.35 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Real Madrid bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Real Madrid menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
37' 37' Yellow Card | A. Tchouameni B. Santamaria Real Madrid
41' 41' Normal Goal | L. Diaz | assist/sub out: S. Gnabry H. Tabaković Bayern München
46' 46' Normal Goal | H. Kane | assist/sub out: M. Olise Bayern München
62' 62' Substitution 2 | Thiago Pitarch | assist/sub out: J. Bellingham Real Madrid
62' 62' Substitution 3 | Thiago Pitarch | assist/sub out: J. Bellingham Real Madrid
69' 69' Substitution 6 | S. Gnabry | assist/sub out: J. Musiala Yuri Bayern München
69' 69' Substitution 5 | S. Gnabry | assist/sub out: J. Musiala Yuri Bayern München
70' 70' Yellow Card | J. Tah A. Diallo Bayern München
Metric Real Madrid Bayern München SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.2 2.92 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 6 final
Shots off target 8 6 final
Shots on target 9 8 final
Udary vsego 20 20 final
Fouls soversheno 12 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 4 final
Offsides 1 2 final
Real Madrid #1 Manuel Neuer, #2 Dayot Upamecano, #4 Jonathan Tah, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #7 S. Gnabry, #9 Harry Kane, #14 Luis Díaz, #17 Michael Olise, #27 Konrad Laimer, #44 Josip Stanišić, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović
Bayern München #7 Vinicius Junior, #8 F. Valverde, #10 K. Mbappe, #12 T. Alexander-Arnold, #13 A. Lunin, #14 A. Tchouameni, #15 Arda Güler, #18 A. Carreras, #22 A. Rüdiger, #24 D. Huijsen, #45 Thiago Pitarch
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Davies Real Madrid football.player.assists 0
A. Davies Real Madrid Seyvy 0
A. Davies Real Madrid football.player.minutes_played 21
A. Davies Real Madrid Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Davies Real Madrid Klyuchevye pasy 4
A. Davies Real Madrid Reyting (staryy) 6.2
A. Davies Real Madrid Otbory vsego 4
Aleksandar Pavlović Real Madrid football.player.assists 0
Aleksandar Pavlović Real Madrid Dribling popytki 6
Aleksandar Pavlović Real Madrid Dribling uspeshno 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Real Madrid 34.5% 31.5%
Draw 24.2% 22.2% draw risk
Bayern München 41.2% 46.4% market and model agree
xG - 1.53 : 1.89
Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.5% / 22.2% / 46.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,820 / 1,993 Real Madrid / Bayern München
RD 108 / 125 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.36 market consensus · weak value +9.4% · model 46.4%
X 4.03 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.67 market consensus · no value · model 31.5%
Double chance
X2 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 68.5%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 77.8%
1X 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 53.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.29 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.36 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Under 2.5 3.17 market consensus · weak value +97.2% · model 62.2%
Both teams to score
No 3.24 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.33 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.58 38.8% 2.65 37.7% 2.71 36.9% 2.63 38.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0%
X 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.14 24.2% 3.80 26.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8%
2.34 42.7% 2.36 42.4% 2.47 40.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.42 41.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 3.35 29.9% 3.55 28.2% 3.08 32.5% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3%
yes 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.33 75.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Over 2.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.83 54.6% —
Over 3.5 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.75 — 2.04 49.0% —
Over 4.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Over 5.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 1.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 2.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 3.25 — 2.07 48.3% —
Under 3.5 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% —
Under 3.75 — 1.88 53.2% —
Under 4.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 5.5 1.18 84.8% — —
Match center
Real Madrid
Founded 1902
Bayern München
Founded 1900
Match center
Real Madrid
FM F. Mendy Hamstring Injury
TC T. Courtois Thigh Injury
Bayern München
SU S. Ulreich Muscle Injury
WM W. Mike Hip Injury
Real Madrid Founded: 1902
Bayern München Founded: 1900
Match center
Real Madrid
W W W W L
17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:1 Manchester CityManchester City
11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 3:0 Manchester CityManchester City
25.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:1 BenficaBenfica
17.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1:0 BenficaBenfica
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:4 BenficaBenfica
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
12 Points
Bayern München
W W W W W
18.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 4:1 AtalantaAtalanta
10.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 6:1 AtalantaAtalanta
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
21.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 2:0 Union St. Gilloise
09.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Bayern München 3:1 Sporting CPSporting CP
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
15 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.