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Start
25.02.2026 20:00 UTC
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25.02.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid - Benfica
2
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Real Madrid - Benfica February 25, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.
Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.66 / X 4.26 / 2 4.77
- 1X2 market: Real Madrid 57.5% / X 22.4% / Benfica 20.1%
- Total 2.5: over probability 58.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.7%
1
57.5%
X
22.4%
2
20.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Real Madrid - Benfica
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
2
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.77
market consensus · line only
X
4.26
market consensus · line only
1
1.66
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.23
market consensus · line only
12
1.22
market consensus · line only
1X
1.19
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.26
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.77
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.33
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.10
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.63
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.31
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.20
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.63
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 59.9% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.72 58.1% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.70 21.3% | 4.39 22.8% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.35 23.0% |
| 4.45 22.5% | 5.70 17.5% | 4.82 20.8% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.70 21.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.20 45.5% | 2.37 42.2% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.31 43.3% |
| yes | 1.62 61.7% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.66 60.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.15 46.5% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.20 45.5% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.17 85.5% |
| home_draw | 1.20 83.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.14 87.7% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.62 61.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.0 | — | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Over 3.25 | — | 2.01 49.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.55 39.2% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.50 22.2% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.00 9.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.50 22.2% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.25 44.4% | — | — |
| Under 3.0 | — | 2.05 48.8% | — |
| Under 3.25 | — | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.50 66.7% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | — |
Match center
Real Madrid
W
L
W
L
W
Real Madrid
1:0
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
2:4
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
6:1
Monaco
Monaco
Real Madrid
1:2
Manchester City
Manchester City
Real Madrid
4:3
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.8
Scored
2.0
Conceded
9
Points
Benfica
L
W
L
W
W
Benfica
0:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Benfica
4:2
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Benfica
0:2
Juventus
Juventus
Benfica
2:0
Napoli
Napoli
Benfica
2:0
Ajax
Ajax
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Benfica
Real Madrid
2
matches total
Real Madrid: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Benfica: 1 (50%)
Biggest win
Benfica 2:4 (28.01 20:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
6 goals (2:4, 28.01 20:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Real Madrid
1:0
Benfica
Real Madrid
2:4
Benfica
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