Match center
Start
11.03.2026 20:00 UTC
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11.03.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid - Manchester City
3
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Real Madrid - Manchester City March 11, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.
Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.66 / X 3.69 / 2 2.00
- 1X2 market: Real Madrid 26.1% / X 26.0% / Manchester City 47.9%
- Total 2.5: over probability 56.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.4%
1
26.2%
X
26.0%
2
47.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5
56.9%
Under 2.5
43.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Real Madrid - Manchester City
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.00
market consensus · line only
X
3.69
market consensus · line only
1
3.66
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.29
market consensus · line only
12
1.28
market consensus · line only
1X
1.83
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.29
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.10
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.98
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.75
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.68
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.22
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.32
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.58
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.55 28.2% | 3.65 27.4% | 3.79 26.4% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.60 27.8% | |
| X | 3.65 27.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.79 26.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 1.96 51.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.00 50.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.30 43.5% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.34 42.7% | 2.43 41.2% | 2.30 43.5% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.60 62.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.32 75.8% |
| home_draw | 1.80 55.6% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.88 53.2% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.65 60.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Over 3.0 | — | 2.04 49.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.60 38.5% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.75 21.1% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.20 45.5% | — | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 2.05 48.8% | — |
| Under 3.0 | — | 1.86 53.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.48 67.6% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.18 84.8% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | — |
Match center
Real Madrid
W
W
L
W
L
Real Madrid
2:1
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
1:0
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
2:4
Benfica
Benfica
Real Madrid
6:1
Monaco
Monaco
Real Madrid
1:2
Manchester City
Manchester City
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
9
Points
Manchester City
W
L
W
L
W
Manchester City
2:0
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
Manchester City
1:3
Bodo/Glimt
Manchester City
2:1
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Manchester City
0:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Manchester City
4:1
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.4
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Manchester City
Real Madrid
1
matches total
Real Madrid: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Manchester City: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Manchester City 1:2 (10.12 20:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (1:2, 10.12 20:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Real Madrid
1:2
Manchester City
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