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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
07.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
07.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP - Arsenal

World Football
Stadium Zhoze Alvalade
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
0 : 1
Finished
Arsenal
Arsenal
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Arsenal — 56%

1 · Sporting CP21.3%
X · draw22.5%
2 · Arsenal ✓ Pick56.2%

Model estimate: win Sporting CP 21.3%, draw 22.5%, win Arsenal 56.2%. Model favourite — Arsenal.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sporting CP - Arsenal April 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.

Strongest: Arsenal - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.36 / X 3.64 / 2 1.84
  • 1X2 market: Sporting CP 21.9% / X 26.2% / Arsenal 51.9%
  • Glicko: Sporting CP 21.3% / X 22.5% / Arsenal 56.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 21.9%
X 26.2%
2 ✓ Pick 51.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 49.6%
Under 2.5 50.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 60.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 07.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Zhoze Alvalade (Lissabon)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Arsenal 56%
💹 Market Arsenal 5186%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sporting CP - Arsenal

Sporting CP: Win 4.20 Sporting CP: Draw 3.70 Arsenal Win: 1.85 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Sporting CP bolshe 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov Sporting CP menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 36
Metric Sporting CP Arsenal SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.71 1.33 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 4 2 final
Shots on target 5 4 final
Udary vsego 11 8 final
Fouls soversheno 11 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Sporting CP #1 D. Raya, #2 W. Saliba, #4 B. White, #6 Gabriel, #8 M. Odegaard, #14 Viktor Gyökeres, #19 L. Trossard, #20 N. Madueke, #33 R. Calafiori, #36 M. Zubimendi, #41 D. Rice
Arsenal #5 H. Morita, #8 Pote, #17 Francisco Trincão, #20 Maximiliano Araújo, #22 Iván Fresneda, #25 Gonçalo Inácio, #52 João Simões, #97 Luis Javier Suárez
Player Team Metric SStats
Diego Callai Arsenal Seyvy 0
Eduardo Quaresma Arsenal Seyvy 0
Francisco Trincão Arsenal football.player.assists 0
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Dribling popytki 4
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Dribling uspeshno 2
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Edinoborstva vsego 1
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Edinoborstva vyigrano 7
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Fouls soversheno 1
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Fouls na igroke 2
Francisco Trincão Arsenal Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sporting CP 21.1% 21.3%
Draw 26.1% 22.5% draw risk
Arsenal 52.8% 56.2% market and model agree
xG - 1.06 : 1.87
Total 2.5 Over 37.0% - Under 63.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 21.3% / 22.5% / 56.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,778 / 2,025 Sporting CP / Arsenal
RD 116 / 132 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.84 market consensus · weak value +3.4% · model 56.2%
X 3.64 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.36 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%
Double chance
X2 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 77.5%
1X 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 43.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.54 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 37.0%
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · value +19.6% · model 63.0%
Both teams to score
No 1.97 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.20 23.8% 4.30 23.3% 4.53 22.1% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8% 4.40 22.7%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.70 27.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3%
1.81 55.3% 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.17 85.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — 1.27 78.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.50 28.6% — —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.92 52.1% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Sporting CP
Founded 1906
Arsenal
Founded 1886
Match center
Sporting CP
MH Morten Hjulmand Yellow Cards
FI F. Ioannidis Knee Injury
Arsenal
BS B. Saka Injury
EE E. Eze Calf Injury
Sporting CP Founded: 1906
Arsenal Founded: 1886
Match center
Sporting CP
W L W W L
17.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Sporting CP 3:0 Bodo/Glimt
11.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Sporting CP 0:3 Bodo/Glimt
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Sporting CP 3:2 Athletic ClubAthletic Club
20.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Sporting CP 2:1 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
09.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Sporting CP 1:3 BavariyaBavariya
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Arsenal
W D W W W
17.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 2:0 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
11.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 1:1 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
28.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 3:2 Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty
20.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 3:1 InterInter
10.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 3:0 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySporting CP - Arsenal

Sporting CP
0 matches total
Arsenal
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.