UEFA Conference League. Third qualifying round. First leg
Celtic go head-to-head with Dundee on August 3, 2026 in the UEFA Conference League. Third qualifying round. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Celtic 1-3-1, Dundee 3-1-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Celtic — 76%
Pure model vs market (1 · Celtic): model 29% · market 79% Δ −50 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Celtic 76.0%, draw 13.7%, win Dundee 10.3%. Model favourite — Celtic.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.88 53.2% |
| yes | 1.86 53.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.08 92.6% | 1.08 92.6% |
| 1x | 1.02 98.0% | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 4.40 22.7% | 4.40 22.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.54 64.9% | |
| X | 3.16 31.7% |
| 9.60 10.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.80 55.6% |
Celtic
Dundee
Full head-to-head historyCeltic - Dundee
The Celtic - Dundee breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
