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AI verdict

AI pick Brighton win probability ~57% confidence Medium best odds 1.60

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Brighton. Full breakdown below.

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UEFA Conference League
UEFA Conference League
20.08.2026 17:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
20.08.2026 17:00 UTC
Not started

UEFA Conference League

Tromso - Brighton

Football
Tromso
Tromso
- : -
Not started
B
Brighton

Tromso take on Brighton on August 20, 2026 in the UEFA Conference League.

Recent form (W-D-L): Tromso 3-0-2, Brighton 3-0-2. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Brighton — 57%

1 · Tromso19.7%
X · draw23.7%
2 · Brighton56.6%

Model estimate: win Tromso 19.7%, draw 23.7%, win Brighton 56.6%. Model favourite — Brighton.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tromso - Brighton August 20, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Brighton. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.30 / X 3.95 / 2 1.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.4% 2 books
1 17.6%
X 23.7%
2 58.7%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 5.50 ↓ 5.30
1X2 X 4.00 ↓ 3.95
1X2 P2 1.57 ↑ 1.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

UEFA Europa Conference League
Best price across 12 books
1 5.64 1xBet
X 4.10 Dafabet
2 1.65 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Tromso
18%
5.30
Draw
24%
3.95
Brighton
59%
1.60
Total
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Under 2.5
46%
2.06
Both teams to score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
2.01

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket UEFA Conference League 26/27, Qualification

Qualification round 1
Af Elbasani6
Bate Borisov5
FK Mornar3
Atletic Club3
Glentoran3
FC RFS2
FK Decic2
Liepaja2
Mondorf-Les-Bains2
Dinamo Tbilisi3
Una Strassen1
La Fiorita2
Runavik2
Spartans3
Connah's Quay3
Ballkani2
Vllaznia Shkoder7
Malisheva1
Bohemians D.2
St Josephs0
Alashkert Yerevan8
FC Yelimai9
Hegelmann Kaunas4
Paide1
Dila Gori4
Virtus1
Vikingur5
Stjarnan3
Europa1
Shkendija Tetovo5
Sarajevo3
Inter Turku2
Pen-y-Bont3
FC Coloma1
Nomme3
Linfield2
Zira3
Kutaisi3
Differdange3
Ilves1
Velez Mostar1
Milsami2
Dinamo Minsk5
Sileks Kratovo8
Marsaxlokk1
Pyunik Yerevan3
Dinamo City1
Astana5
Caernarfon5
Levadia Tallinn5
Petrovac3
Zalgiris Vilnius4
Qualification round 2
Ajax5
Vojvodina Novi Sad5
Sutjeska Niksic4
Maxline Vitebsk2
Dinamo City4
Aluminij Kidricevo1
ETO Gyor3
Bissen7
Zalgiris Vilnius10
Dinamo Tbilisi2
Petrocub Hincesti6
Banja Luka3
Noah Yerevan3
Zimbru2
Braga4
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1
Zrinjski Mostar3
Valur Reykjavik2
Ludogorets4
Hapoel Tel Aviv2
New Saints4
Tallinna4
HB Torshavn2
Motherwell3
SK Rapid7
FC Coloma5
Ilves8
Stjarnan5
Gent4
Cherkasy2
Sion5
Bate Borisov1
Copenhagen5
Polissya Zhytomyr4
Velez Mostar1
Dunajska Streda3
Zira2
Paide1
Ballkani9
Bohemians D.8
FK Vardar Skopje7
Riga FC5
Tobol5
Panevezys4
CFR Cluj4
Alashkert Yerevan1
KF Dukagjini2
Lugano5
Dinamo Minsk2
Baku5
Inter Turku3
Basaksehir1
Koper4
Runavik9
Derry City1
Rijeka1
CSKA 19485
Trnava3
Atletic Club4
Vaduz2
Valletta3
Czestochowa5
IF Vestri5
FC RFS2
Auda6
FCSB4
Una Strassen4
Partizan Belgrade1
Beitar Jerusalem6
Larnaca7
Coleraine5
HJK Helsinki3
Nordsjaelland7
GAIS0
Pyunik Yerevan1
Debreceni0
Austria3
Liepaja3
Varazdin5
Jablonec2
Katowice5
Zilina2
Levadia Tallinn2
Goteborg5
Nomme7
Shelbourne3
Panathinaikos3
Paksi4
Brann5
Uni Cluj3
Shkendija Tetovo5
Bravo Ljubljana2
Apollon Limassol3
Dila Gori4
Drita3
Floriana2
Hibernian6
Malisheva1
Qualification round 3
Tre Fiori6
Drita4
IC Escaldes2
Tallinna4
Jablonec3
FC RFS2
Lugano4
Runavik2
Bohemians D.3
Midtjylland4
Paide3
SK Rapid4
Hibernian2
Shkendija Tetovo1
Inter Turku4
Vaduz3
Rijeka2
Ilves1
Braga1
Dinamo Minsk0
Auda5
Dinamo City0
Zalgiris Vilnius6
Hajduk5
Ajax5
Shelbourne3
Valur Reykjavik5
Nordsjaelland2
Hapoel Tel Aviv4
Katowice1
HJK Helsinki3
Motherwell1
Goteborg1
Gent2
Debreceni5
Copenhagen4
Enschede9
Dunajska Streda3
Partizan Belgrade4
Tobol2
CFR Cluj2
Tromsoe6
Czestochowa0
Hammarby1
Brann2
Apollon Limassol5
Riga FC2
ETO Gyor1
Noah Yerevan4
Sion3
Panathinaikos2
CSKA 19483
Beitar Jerusalem6
Austria6
Banja Luka5
Maxline Vitebsk5
Dynamo Kyiv3
Qarabag0
Tiraspol6
St. Gallen4

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated17.08.2026 19:18 UTC
1 40% ✓ favourite
X 35%
2 25%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 40% 35% 25% 1:1 Under 2.5 No 1X

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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Match center
Start 20.08.2026 17:00 UTC
Market 1 17.7% @ 5.30 / X 23.7% @ 3.95 / 2 58.6% @ 1.60
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Tromso 40%
📐 Math model Brighton 57%
💹 Market Brighton 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Tromso - Brighton

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Tromso 17.6% 19.7%
Draw 23.7% 23.7% draw risk
Brighton 58.7% 56.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.7% / 23.7% / 56.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,747 / 1,500 Tromso / Brighton
RD 199 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,348-2,145 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 56.6%
X 3.95 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 5.30 Fonbet · no value · model 19.7%
Double chance
12 1.23 Fonbet · no value · model 76.3%
1X 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 43.4%
X2 1.14 Fonbet · no value · model 80.3%
Handicap
2 -1 1.97 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.97 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.22 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.77 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.00 50.0% 2.01 49.8%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.23 81.3%
1x 2.25 44.4%
x2 1.14 87.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
5.10 19.6%
X 2.42 41.3%
2.13 47.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.64 61.0%
Under 1 2.17 46.1%
Match center
Tromso
W W W L L
2026-08-13 UEFA Conference League 26/27, Qualification
Tromso Tromso 2:1 CFR Cluj
2026-08-06 UEFA Conference League 26/27, Qualification
Tromso CFR Cluj 0:5 Tromso
2026-08-02 Eliteserien 2026
Tromso Aalesund 2:6 Tromso
2026-07-30 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification
Tromso Hradec Kralove 3:1 Tromso
2026-07-23 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification
Tromso Tromso 0:1 Hradec Kralove
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Brighton
W W W L L
2026-08-15 Club Friendly Games 2026
Brighton 1:0 Bologna Brighton
2026-08-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Brighton 3:0 Roma Brighton
2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026
Brighton 4:3 Strasbourg Brighton
2026-05-24 Premier League 25/26
Brighton 0:3 Manchester United Brighton
2026-05-17 Premier League 25/26
Leeds 1:0 Brighton Brighton
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Tromso - Brighton

Tromso
0 matches total
Brighton
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

More predictions

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Frequently asked questions

When does Tromso vs Brighton start?

August 20, 2026.