UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 AEK Athens FC — 71%
Model estimate: win AEK Athens FC 71.4%, draw 17.3%, win Celje 11.4%. Model favourite — AEK Athens FC.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Athens FC.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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AEK Athens FC: Win 1.27 AEK Athens FC: Draw 6.16 Celje Win: 10.84 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.34 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov AEK Athens FC bolshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov AEK Athens FC menshe 2.5: 1.81 Individualnyy total…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.26 79.4% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | |
| X | 5.90 17.0% | 5.90 17.0% | 6.16 16.2% | 5.50 18.2% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.00 16.7% |
| 9.50 10.5% | 9.80 10.2% | 11.80 8.5% | 10.00 10.0% | 9.00 11.1% | 11.50 8.7% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.74 57.5% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 2.04 49.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.95 51.3% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 3.80 26.3% | 3.96 25.3% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.75 26.7% |
| home_away | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.13 88.5% |
| home_draw | 1.04 96.2% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.06 94.3% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.06 94.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.18 84.8% | — | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.55 64.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.0 | — | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.35 42.6% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.00 9.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.75 21.1% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.40 41.7% | — | — |
| Under 3.0 | — | 2.03 49.3% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.57 63.7% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | — |
AEK Athens FC
Celje
AEK Athens FC
Tsele
Universitatea Craiova
Samsunspor
Fiorentina
Shamrock Rovers
Celje
AEK Afiny
Drita
Drita
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
Full head-to-head historyAEK Athens FC - Celje
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The AEK Athens FC - Celje breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
Simone Sozza