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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Athens FC - Rayo Vallecano

World Football
Stadium Ayya-Sofia
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
3 : 1
Finished
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 AEK Athens FC — 48%

1 · AEK Athens FC48.1%
X · draw23.6%
2 · Rayo Vallecano28.3%

Model estimate: win AEK Athens FC 48.1%, draw 23.6%, win Rayo Vallecano 28.3%. Model favourite — AEK Athens FC.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AEK Athens FC - Rayo Vallecano April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Athens FC.

Strongest: AEK Athens FC - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.63 / 2 3.63
  • 1X2 market: AEK Athens FC 48.1% / X 26.0% / Rayo Vallecano 25.9%
  • Glicko: AEK Athens FC 48.1% / X 23.6% / Rayo Vallecano 28.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 48.1%
X 26.0%
2 26.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 52.9%
Under 2.5 47.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/6
Confidence 51.4%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Ayya-Sofiya (Afiny)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model AEK Athens FC 48%
💹 Market AEK Athens FC 4810%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

AEK Athens FC - Rayo Vallecano

AEK Athens FC: Win 1.95 AEK Athens FC: Draw 3.75 Rayo Vallecano Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.75 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov AEK Athens FC bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov AEK Athens FC menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualn…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Normal Goal | Zini | assist/sub out: S. Pilios AEK Athens FC
19' 19' Yellow Card | I. Akhomach Rayo Vallecano
27' 27' Substitution 1 | A. Garcia | assist/sub out: Pacha Rayo Vallecano
30' 30' Yellow Card | B. Varga K. Letica AEK Athens FC
36' 36' Penalty | R. Marin E. Elmas AEK Athens FC
44' 44' Yellow Card | U. Lopez Rayo Vallecano
46' 46' Substitution 2 | I. Akhomach | assist/sub out: Alemao Rayo Vallecano
51' 51' Normal Goal | Zini AEK Athens FC
Metric AEK Athens FC Rayo Vallecano SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.78 1.8 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 9 5 final
Shots on target 9 4 final
Udary vsego 21 10 final
Fouls soversheno 15 17 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Offsides 1 0 final
AEK Athens FC #1 T. Strakosha, #2 H. Moukoudi, #3 Stavros Pilios, #7 D. Kutesa, #11 A. Koita, #12 Lazaros Rota, #13 O. Pineda, #25 B. Varga, #44 F. Relvas, #90 Zini
Rayo Vallecano #2 A. Rațiu, #3 Pep Chavarría, #5 Luiz Felipe, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #12 Ilias Akhomach, #13 A. Batalla, #17 Unai López, #18 Álvaro García, #19 Jorge de Frutos, #24 F. Lejeune
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Dribling popytki 1
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Fouls soversheno 1
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 3
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Klyuchevye pasy 30
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting 5
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Reyting (staryy) 7.5
A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano Otbory vsego 15
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
AEK Athens FC 47.7% 48.1% market and model agree
Draw 26.1% 23.6% draw risk
Rayo Vallecano 26.1% 28.3%
xG - 1.73 : 1.27
Total 2.5 Over 57.6% - Under 42.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.1% / 23.6% / 28.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,776 / 1,811 AEK Athens FC / Rayo Vallecano
RD 106 / 123 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.63 market consensus · no value · model 28.3%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 48.1%
Double chance
X2 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 51.9%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 76.4%
1X 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 71.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.43 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · weak value +3.7% · model 57.6%
Under 2.5 2.02 market consensus · no value · model 42.4%
Both teams to score
No 2.10 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.67 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.91 52.4% 2.11 47.4% 1.99 50.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.78 26.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0%
3.65 27.4% 3.35 29.9% 3.78 26.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.85 26.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.18 45.9% 2.09 47.9% 2.15 46.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% —
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
AEK Athens FC
Founded 1924
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
Match center
AEK Athens FC
L L W W W
09.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 0:3 Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 0:2 TseleTsele
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 4:0 TseleTsele
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 3:2 Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova
11.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 2:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Rayo Vallecano
W L W W W
09.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 3:0 AEK AfinyAEK Afiny
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 3:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 3:0 DritaDrita
11.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 2:1 Jagiellonia
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAEK Athens FC - Rayo Vallecano

AEK Athens FC
1 matches total
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Rayo Vallecano: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 0:3 (09.04 16:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 09.04 16:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Afiny
0:3
Rayo Vallecano
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.