UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Crystal Palace — 55%
Model estimate: win AEK Larnaca 19.4%, draw 25.5%, win Crystal Palace 55.1%. Model favourite — Crystal Palace.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Crystal Palace.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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AEK Larnaca: Win 7.18 AEK Larnaca: Draw 4.04 Crystal Palace Win: 1.53 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.71 Individualnyy total golov AEK Larnaca bolshe 0.5: 1.93 Individualnyy total golov AEK Larnaca menshe 0.5: 1.92 Individualnyy total…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.25 16.0% | 5.00 20.0% | 6.53 15.3% | 6.00 16.7% | 6.50 15.4% | 7.00 14.3% | |
| X | 3.80 26.3% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.32 23.2% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.00 25.0% |
| 1.55 64.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.65 60.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.61 62.1% |
| yes | 2.10 47.6% | 1.99 50.3% | 2.17 46.1% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.17 46.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.10 90.9% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 2.40 41.7% | 2.56 39.1% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.47 40.5% | 2.50 40.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.19 84.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — | 1.34 74.6% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.43 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.80 26.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.70 58.8% | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | — |
AEK Larnaca
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaca
Kristal Pelas
Shkendija
BK Hacken
HNK Rijeka
Aberdeen
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaka
Zrinjski
Zrinjski
KuPS
Shelbourne
Full head-to-head historyAEK Larnaca - Crystal Palace
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The AEK Larnaca - Crystal Palace breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
