Match center
Start
16.04.2026 16:45 UTC
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16.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk
2
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 AZ Alkmaar — 46%
Model estimate: win AZ Alkmaar 46.5%, draw 24.1%, win Shakhtar Donetsk 29.5%. Model favourite — AZ Alkmaar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk April 16, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AZ Alkmaar.
Strongest: AZ Alkmaar - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.13 / X 3.52 / 2 3.27
- 1X2 market: AZ Alkmaar 44.4% / X 26.8% / Shakhtar Donetsk 28.9%
- Glicko: AZ Alkmaar 46.5% / X 24.1% / Shakhtar Donetsk 29.5%
- Total 2.5: over probability 45.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.9%
1
44.3%
X
26.8%
2
28.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
5/7
Confidence
50.5%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
AZ Alkmaar 46%
💹 Market
AZ Alkmaar 4435%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk
AZ Alkmaar: Win 2.00 AZ Alkmaar: Draw 3.50 Shakhtar Donetsk Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy total golov AZ Alkmaar bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov AZ Alkmaar menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total g…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
23
Statistics
24
Lineups
37
min
Event
Player
Team
24'
24' Yellow Card | Isaque
Shakhtar Donetsk
31'
31' Yellow Card | Mateo Chávez
AZ Alkmaar
33'
33' Yellow Card | Billy van Duijl
AZ Alkmaar
35'
35' Yellow Card | Kasper Boogaard
AZ Alkmaar
45+2'
45+2' Yellow Card | Ibrahim Sadiq
Igor Kudryashov
AZ Alkmaar
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Seiya Maikuma | assist/sub out: Ayoub Oufkir
AZ Alkmaar
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Mateo Chávez | assist/sub out: Isak Steiner Jensen
AZ Alkmaar
58'
58' Normal Goal | Alisson Santana
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metric
AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.85
1.51
final
Zablokirovannye udary
1
3
final
Shots off target
4
5
final
Shots on target
3
6
final
Udary vsego
8
14
final
Fouls soversheno
19
17
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
4
final
Offsides
2
7
final
AZ Alkmaar
#4 M. Dekker, #7 Weslley Patati, #11 I. Sadiq, #15 M. Chávez, #33 M. Šín, #35 M. Meerdink, #41 J. Zoet
Shakhtar Donetsk
#5 V. Bondar, #11 Newerton, #13 P. Henrique, #14 Isaque Silva, #17 V. Tobias, #19 Kaua Elias, #22 M. Matviienko, #27 O. Ocheretko, #29 Y. Nazaryna, #30 Alisson, #31 D. Riznyk
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Denys Tvardovskyi
Seyvy
0
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
football.player.assists
0
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
Edinoborstva vyigrano
1
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
Seyvy
0
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
football.player.minutes_played
1
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
Klyuchevye pasy
3
A. Bondarenko
Shakhtar Donetsk
Otbory vsego
2
A. Ghram
Shakhtar Donetsk
Seyvy
0
Alisson
Shakhtar Donetsk
football.player.assists
0
Alisson
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dribling popytki
7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
AZ Alkmaar
47.0%
46.5%
market and model agree
Draw
26.3%
24.1%
draw risk
Shakhtar Donetsk
26.7%
29.5%
xG
-
1.66 : 1.28
Total 2.5
Over 45.6%
-
Under 54.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
46.5% / 24.1% / 29.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,759 / 1,799
AZ Alkmaar / Shakhtar Donetsk
RD
98 / 119
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.27
market consensus · no value · model 29.5%
X
3.52
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.13
market consensus · no value · model 46.5%
Double chance
X2
1.68
market consensus · no value · model 53.5%
12
1.28
market consensus · no value · model 75.9%
1X
1.33
market consensus · no value · model 70.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.74
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.34
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.18
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.90
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.73
market consensus · no value · model 45.6%
Under 2.5
2.10
market consensus · value +14.2% · model 54.4%
Both teams to score
No
2.22
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.60
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.18 45.9% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.22 45.1% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.58 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.70 27.0% |
| 3.05 32.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.33 30.0% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.29 43.7% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.27 44.1% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.58 63.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.65 60.6% | 1.71 58.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.09 91.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.73 57.8% | 1.75 57.1% | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.94 51.6% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.80 35.7% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.25 19.1% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.95 25.3% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.42 70.4% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.15 87.0% | — | — |
Match center
AZ Alkmaar
Founded
1967
Shakhtar Donetsk
Founded
1936
Match center
AZ Alkmaar
L
W
W
W
L
AZ Alkmaar
0:3
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
AZ Alkmaar
4:0
Sparta Praga
Sparta Praga
AZ Alkmaar
2:1
Sparta Praga
Sparta Praga
AZ Alkmaar
4:0
FC Noah
FC Noah
AZ Alkmaar
0:1
FC Noah
FC Noah
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Shakhtar Donetsk
W
L
W
D
W
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:0
AZ Alkmar
AZ Alkmar
Shakhtar Donetsk
1:2
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:1
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
0:0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
Shakhtar Donetsk
2:0
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.6
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk
AZ Alkmaar
1
matches total
AZ Alkmaar: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Shakhtar Donetsk: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Shakhtar Donetsk 0:3 (09.04 19:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (0:3, 09.04 19:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
AZ Alkmar
0:3
Shakhtar Donetsk
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form