UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 AZ Alkmaar — 50%
Model estimate: win AZ Alkmaar 50.0%, draw 23.8%, win Sparta Praha 26.2%. Model favourite — AZ Alkmaar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AZ Alkmaar.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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AZ Alkmaar: Win 1.91 AZ Alkmaar: Draw 3.63 Sparta Praha Win: 4.24 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.88 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.01 Individualnyy total golov AZ Alkmaar bolshe 1.5: 1.88 Individualnyy total golov AZ Alkmaar menshe 1.5: 1.97 Individualnyy total golov…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 2.14 46.7% | 1.92 52.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.85 54.1% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.63 27.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 3.85 26.0% | 3.10 32.3% | 4.26 23.5% | 3.70 27.0% | 4.35 23.0% | 4.00 25.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.05 48.8% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.04 49.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.07 48.3% |
| yes | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.73 57.8% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.85 54.1% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.89 52.9% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% |
| home_draw | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.21 82.6% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.11 90.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | 1.21 82.6% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.75 17.4% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.60 27.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.95 51.3% | 2.01 49.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.36 73.5% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.12 89.3% | — | — |
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Praha
AZ Alkmaar
FC Noah
FC Noah
Drita
Shelbourne
Sparta Praha
Aberdeen
Universitatea Craiova
Rakuv
HNK Rijeka
Full head-to-head historyAZ Alkmaar - Sparta Praha
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Praha breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
