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UEFA Europa Conference League World

30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca

World Football

Beitar Jerusalem

- : -

Not started

AEK Larnaca

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Beitar Jerusalem — 43%

Pure model vs market (1 · Beitar Jerusalem): model 55% · market 42% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Beitar Jerusalem43.0%

X · draw27.7%

2 · AEK Larnaca29.4%

Model estimate: win Beitar Jerusalem 43.0%, draw 27.7%, win AEK Larnaca 29.4%. Model favourite — Beitar Jerusalem.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Beitar Jerusalem (odds2.20) Score 1:0 Under 2.5 (odds1.72) Handicap H1 +0 (odds1.58) confidence 50%

• liniya na pik P1 2.10→2.18 (udlinilas — rynok dreyfuet vs)
• Model backs Beitar Jerusalem: probability 50% vs 46% on the line (odds 2.20)
• edge over the line +4 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.72)
• Handicap F1 +0: score forecast 1:0 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.58).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Beitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Beitar Jerusalem. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.18 / X 3.30 / 2 3.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.4%

1 42.3%

X 27.9%

2 29.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 2.10 ↑ 2.18

1X2 X 3.30 → 3.30

1X2 P2 3.20 ↓ 3.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Beitar Jerusalem 1 : 1 AEK Larnaca

12.21

X3.30

23.14

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Beitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Beitar Jerusalem 42.2% 43.0% market and model agree

Draw 28.0% 27.7% draw risk

AEK Larnaca 29.8% 29.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 43.0% / 27.7% / 29.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,816 / 1,554 Beitar Jerusalem / AEK Larnaca

RD 187 / 137 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,442-2,191 / 1,280-1,828 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.10 Fonbet · no value · model 29.4%

X 3.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.18 Fonbet · no value · model 43.0%

Double chance

12 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 72.3%

1X 1.32 Fonbet · no value · model 70.6%

X2 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 57.0%

Handicap

2 -1 1.27 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.60 Fonbet · line only

2 0 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.78 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.92 52.1%	1.91 52.4%
yes	1.78 56.2%	1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.29 77.5%	1.27 78.7%	1.30 76.9%
1x	1.31 76.3%	1.34 74.6%	1.32 75.8%
x2	1.59 62.9%	1.59 62.9%	1.60 62.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.75 36.4%
X	2.18 45.9%
	3.90 25.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.90 52.6%
Under 1	1.84 54.4%

Match center

Beitar Jerusalem

Country Israel

AEK Larnaca

Country Cyprus

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 1.0 gls

2026-07-23 · Beytar Ierusalim 1:0 AEK Larnaka

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.22 (Betcity) · X 3.4 (Betcity) · 2 3.4 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	2.15	3.35	3.15
Winline	2.19	3.35	3.4
Fonbet	2.15	3.35	3.15
Betcity	2.22	3.4	3
Liga Stavok	2.1	3.35	3.4

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Beitar Jerusalem

W W L W W

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem 1:0 AEK Larnaka

14.08 17:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem 3:1 Riga

07.08 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem 0:3 Riga

31.07 17:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem 5:2 Sutjeska

24.07 18:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem 2:1 Sutjeska

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

AEK Larnaca

L L D W D

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Larnaca 0:1 Beitar Jerusalem

19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Larnaca 1:2 Kristal Pelas

12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Larnaca 0:0 Kristal Pelas

18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Larnaca 1:0 Shkendija

11.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

AEK Larnaca 1:1 BK Hacken

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.8 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBeitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca

Beitar Jerusalem

1 matches total

AEK Larnaca

Beitar Jerusalem: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

AEK Larnaca: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Beitar Jerusalem 1:0 (23.07 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 23.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Beitar Jerusalem

1:0

AEK Larnaka