UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 AEK Athens FC — 57%
Model estimate: win Celje 20.4%, draw 22.5%, win AEK Athens FC 57.1%. Model favourite — AEK Athens FC.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Athens FC.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Celje: Win 5.16 Celje: Draw 4.13 AEK Athens FC Win: 1.66 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.72 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.19 Individualnyy total golov Celje bolshe 0.5: 1.52 Individualnyy total golov Celje menshe 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov AEK Athens FC bol…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 20.0% | 3.50 28.6% | 5.25 19.1% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.30 18.9% | 5.00 20.0% | |
| X | 3.90 25.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 4.05 24.7% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.15 24.1% | 3.90 25.6% |
| 1.63 61.4% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.62 61.7% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.05 48.8% |
| yes | 1.67 59.9% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.74 57.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.17 85.5% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.14 87.7% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% |
| home_draw | 2.20 45.5% | 2.26 44.3% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.27 44.1% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.21 45.3% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — | 1.17 85.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 2.0 | — | — | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.70 58.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.70 37.0% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | — | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.94 51.6% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.45 69.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.17 85.5% | — | — |
Celje
AEK Athens FC
Celje
Drita
Drita
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
Sigma Olomouts
AEK Athens FC
Universitatea Craiova
Samsunspor
Fiorentina
Shamrock Rovers
Aberdeen
Full head-to-head historyCelje - AEK Athens FC
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Celje - AEK Athens FC breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
Luís Godinho