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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Crystal Palace - Fiorentina

World Football
Stadium Selkherst Park
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
3 : 0
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Crystal Palace — 57%

1 · Crystal Palace ✓ Pick57.3%
X · draw23.1%
2 · Fiorentina19.6%

Model estimate: win Crystal Palace 57.3%, draw 23.1%, win Fiorentina 19.6%. Model favourite — Crystal Palace.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Crystal Palace - Fiorentina April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Crystal Palace.

Strongest: Crystal Palace - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.60 / X 3.87 / 2 5.84
  • 1X2 market: Crystal Palace 59.2% / X 24.5% / Fiorentina 16.3%
  • Glicko: Crystal Palace 57.3% / X 23.1% / Fiorentina 19.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 ✓ Pick 59.3%
X 24.5%
2 16.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 49.0%
Under 2.5 51.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 58.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Selkherst Park (London)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Crystal Palace 57%
💹 Market Crystal Palace 5922%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Crystal Palace - Fiorentina

Crystal Palace: Win 1.57 Crystal Palace: Draw 3.80 Fiorentina Win: 6.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov Crystal Palace bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Crystal Palace menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualn…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
21' 21' Yellow Card | Dodô Fiorentina
24' 24' Penalty | J. Mateta Crystal Palace
31' 31' Normal Goal | T. Mitchell Crystal Palace
65' 65' Substitution 4 | E. Guessand | assist/sub out: Y. Pino Crystal Palace
69' 69' Yellow Card | R. Piccoli Fiorentina
76' 76' Yellow Card | C. Richards Crystal Palace
78' 78' Substitution 6 | J. Harrison | assist/sub out: J. Fazzini S. Quillahuaman Fiorentina
78' 78' Substitution 7 | R. Gosens | assist/sub out: L. Balbo Fiorentina
Metric Crystal Palace Fiorentina SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.05 0.45 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 1 final
Shots off target 8 5 final
Shots on target 6 2 final
Udary vsego 17 8 final
Fouls soversheno 16 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Crystal Palace #1 D. Henderson, #2 D. Munoz, #3 Tyrick Mitchell, #5 M. Lacroix, #7 I. Sarr, #14 J. Mateta, #18 Daichi Kamada, #20 A. Wharton, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #26 Chris Richards, #29 E. Guessand
Fiorentina #2 DodGґ, #5 M. Pongracic, #6 L. Ranieri, #10 A. GuG°mundsson, #17 J. Harrison, #21 R. Gosens, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #44 N. Fagioli, #80 G. Fabbian, #91 R. Piccoli
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Dribling popytki 1
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Fouls soversheno 1
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Seyvy 0
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Wharton Crystal Palace Klyuchevye pasy 70
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Crystal Palace 59.4% 57.3% market and model agree
Draw 24.5% 23.1% draw risk
Fiorentina 16.1% 19.6%
xG - 1.79 : 0.95
Total 2.5 Over 43.2% - Under 56.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 57.3% / 23.1% / 19.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,707 / 1,808 Crystal Palace / Fiorentina
RD 118 / 110 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.84 market consensus · no value · model 19.6%
X 3.87 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 57.3%
Double chance
X2 2.31 market consensus · no value · model 42.7%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 77.0%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 80.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.33 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.75 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%
Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · value +6.3% · model 56.9%
Both teams to score
No 1.82 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.69 59.2% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.80 26.3% 3.95 25.3% 3.80 26.3%
5.00 20.0% 5.90 17.0% 6.17 16.2% 6.25 16.0% 5.90 17.0% 5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.78 56.2% 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.94 51.6% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.10 47.6% 2.40 41.7% 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.30 43.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.27 78.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% —
Over 3.5 3.40 29.4% — —
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.30 30.3% — —
Under 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.30 76.9% — —
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Crystal Palace
Founded 1861
Fiorentina
Founded 1926
Match center
Crystal Palace
W D W D D
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:1 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 0:0 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:0 ZrinjskiZrinjski
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 1:1 ZrinjskiZrinjski
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:2 KuPSKuPS
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Fiorentina
W W L W L
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:1 RakuvRakuv
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:1 RakuvRakuv
26.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:4 Jagiellonia
19.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 3:0 Jagiellonia
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 0:1 Lausanne
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.