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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
semi-final. 2 match 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
07.05.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 2 match
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Crystal Palace - Shakhtar Donetsk

World Football
Stadium Selkherst Park
Referee A. Hernandez
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
2 : 1
Finished
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Crystal Palace — 57%

1 · Crystal Palace ✓ Pick57.5%
X · draw22.8%
2 · Shakhtar Donetsk19.8%

Model estimate: win Crystal Palace 57.5%, draw 22.8%, win Shakhtar Donetsk 19.8%. Model favourite — Crystal Palace.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Crystal Palace - Shakhtar Donetsk May 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Crystal Palace.

Strongest: Crystal Palace - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 3.98 / 2 5.15
  • 1X2 market: Crystal Palace 57.7% / X 23.9% / Shakhtar Donetsk 18.4%
  • Glicko: Crystal Palace 57.5% / X 22.8% / Shakhtar Donetsk 19.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 ✓ Pick 57.8%
X 23.8%
2 18.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5 50.4%
Under 2.5 49.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 6/6
Confidence 63.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Stadium Selkherst Park (London, England), 23 080 zriteley (88% pri vmestimosti 26 309)
Referee Alekhandro Ernandes (Santa-Krus-de-Tenerife)
Start 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Crystal Palace 57%
💹 Market Crystal Palace 5771%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Crystal Palace - Shakhtar Donetsk

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Kristal Pelas - Shakhter, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Conference League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 2 match. Kristal Pelas - Shakhter, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
12' 12' Goal cancelled | Yéremy Pino Y. Pino Crystal Palace
15' 15' Yellow Card | V. Bondar V. Bondar Shakhtar Donetsk
25' 25' Own Goal Crystal Palace
27' 27' Substitution 1 | Vinícius Tobias | assist/sub out: A. Ghram V. Tobias Shakhtar Donetsk
34' 34' Normal Goal | Eguinaldo | assist/sub out: Pedrinho Eguinaldo Shakhtar Donetsk
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Alisson Santana | assist/sub out: Isaque Alisson Shakhtar Donetsk
52' 52' Normal Goal | Ismaïla Sarr | assist/sub out: Tyrick Mitchell I. Sarr Crystal Palace
56' 56' Substitution 4 | O. Ocheretko | assist/sub out: Newertton O. Ocheretko Shakhtar Donetsk
Metric Crystal Palace Shakhtar Donetsk SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.37 1.04 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 4 final
Shots off target 4 7 final
Shots on target 5 6 final
Udary vsego 11 17 final
Fouls soversheno 8 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Crystal Palace #1 D. Henderson, #3 Tyrick Mitchell, #10 Y. Pino, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #5 M. Lacroix, #14 J. Mateta, #18 Daichi Kamada, #7 I. Sarr, #20 A. Wharton, #26 Chris Richards, #2 D. Munoz
Shakhtar Donetsk #7 Eguinaldo, #13 P. Henrique, #19 Kaua Elias, #27 O. Ocheretko, #31 D. Riznyk, #6 Marlon Gomes, #22 M. Matviienko, #5 V. Bondar, #10 Pedrinho, #17 V. Tobias, #30 Alisson
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 89
B. Johnson Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
B. Johnson Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 12
Chris Richards Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
Chris Richards Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 90
D. Henderson Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
D. Henderson Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 90
D. Munoz Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
D. Munoz Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 89
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Crystal Palace 58.9% 57.5% market and model agree
Draw 23.5% 22.8% draw risk
Shakhtar Donetsk 17.6% 19.8%
xG - 1.83 : 0.97
Total 2.5 Over 39.4% - Under 60.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 57.5% / 22.8% / 19.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,765 / 1,761 Crystal Palace / Shakhtar Donetsk
RD 105 / 109 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.04 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%
X 8.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 57.5%
Double chance
X2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 42.5%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 77.2%
1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.72 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.58 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 39.4%
Under 2.5 1.91 market consensus · value +15.8% · model 60.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
X 3.85 26.0% 4.20 23.8% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.10 24.4% 4.00 25.0%
4.90 20.4% 5.46 18.3% 4.80 20.8% 5.25 19.1% 5.40 18.5% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.15 46.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.20 45.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.0 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.72 58.1%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% —
Under 2.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
Crystal Palace
Founded 1861
Shakhtar Donetsk
Founded 1936
Match center
Crystal Palace

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Shakhtar Donetsk

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Eddi Nketia Sheyk Dukure Evann Gessan Borna Sosa Travmirovannye
Crystal Palace Founded: 1861
Shakhtar Donetsk Founded: 1936
Match center
Crystal Palace
W L W W D
30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 3:1 Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 1:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 3:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:1 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 0:0 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Shakhtar Donetsk
L D W L W
30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 1:3 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
16.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 2:2 AZ AlkmarAZ Alkmar
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:0 AZ AlkmarAZ Alkmar
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 1:2 Lech Poznan
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:1 Lech Poznan
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCrystal Palace - Shakhtar Donetsk

Crystal Palace
1 matches total
Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Shakhtar Donetsk: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Kristal Pelas 3:1 (30.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 30.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Kristal Pelas
3:1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Crystal Palace
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Shakhtar Donetsk
Crystal Palace Team comparison Shakhtar Donetsk
15 Games 13
8 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
24 Scored 23
11 Conceded 15
28 Points 24
123.86 Attacks 96.6
50.43 Dangerous attacks 52.6
0 Big chances 0
14.71 Shots on goal 13.2
5.47 Shots on target 5
daleniya 0.08 Goly Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 1:0 25' Eginaldo Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 1 34' Ismaila Sarr Tayrik Mitchell 2:1 52' Nakazaniya Valeriy Bondar 15' VAR Yeremi Pino 10'

Kristal Pelas Shakhter 15 Games 13 8 Wins 7 4 Draws 3 Losses 3 24 Scored 23 11 Conceded 15 28 Points 24 123.86 Attacks 96.6 50.43 Dangerous attacks 52.6 0 Big chances 0 14.71 Shots on goal 13.2 5.47 Udary v stvor 5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.13 Uglovye 5.77 1.8 Offsaydy 2.08 11.93 Foly 9.54 55.8 % vladeniya myachom 63.54 1.8 Warnings 2.23 0.07 Sendoffs 0.08 Goly Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 1:0 25' Eginaldo Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 1 34' Ismaila Sarr Tayrik Mitchell 2:1 52' Nakazaniya Valeriy Bondar 15' VAR Yeremi Pino 10'