UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Celje — 53%
Model estimate: win Drita 21.6%, draw 25.8%, win Celje 52.7%. Model favourite — Celje.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celje.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Drita: Win 4.52 Drita: Draw 3.53 Celje Win: 1.86 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.06 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.82 Individualnyy total golov Drita bolshe 0.5: 1.56 Individualnyy total golov Drita menshe 0.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Celje bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Ind…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.20 23.8% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.47 22.4% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.55 22.0% | |
| X | 3.40 29.4% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.58 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% |
| 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Betway | Bwin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.82 55.0% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.87 53.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.91 52.4% | 1.97 50.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.91 52.4% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.16 86.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.50 28.6% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.25 | — | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — | — |
Drita
Celje
Drita
Rayo Vallecano
AZ Alkmar
Shkendija
Shelbourne
Celje
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
Sigma Olomouts
Shamrock Rovers
Full head-to-head historyDrita - Celje
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Drita - Celje breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
Chris Kavanagh