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UEFA Europa Conference League World

30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Europa Conference League

Dukagjini - FC Lugano

World Football

Dukagjini

- : -

Not started

FC Lugano

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FC Lugano — 58%

Pure model vs market (2 · FC Lugano): model 44% · market 58% Δ −14 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Dukagjini18.7%

X · draw23.7%

2 · FC Lugano57.5%

Model estimate: win Dukagjini 18.7%, draw 23.7%, win FC Lugano 57.5%. Model favourite — FC Lugano.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2FC Lugano (odds1.58) Score 1:2 Over 2.5 (odds1.90) confidence 58%

• liniya na pik P2 1.67→1.60 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
• Model backs FC Lugano: probability 58% vs 63% on the line (odds 1.58)
• no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 1:2
• Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dukagjini - FC Lugano July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: FC Lugano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 5.00 / X 3.90 / 2 1.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 18.5%

X 23.7%

2 57.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 4.80 ↑ 5.00

1X2 X 3.50 ↑ 3.90

1X2 P2 1.67 ↓ 1.60

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

Dukagjini - FC Lugano

Form 1/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Dukagjini 17.9% 18.7%

Draw 23.7% 23.7% draw risk

FC Lugano 58.4% 57.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 18.7% / 23.7% / 57.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,433 / 1,669 Dukagjini / FC Lugano

RD 279 / 183 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 876-1,991 / 1,302-2,035 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.60 Fonbet · no value · model 57.5%

X 3.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 5.00 Fonbet · no value · model 18.7%

Double chance

12 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 76.3%

1X 2.20 Fonbet · no value · model 42.5%

X2 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 81.3%

Handicap

2 -1 1.05 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 2.00 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.25 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 7.30 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%
1x	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%
x2	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	5.50 18.2%
X	2.28 43.9%
	2.17 46.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.84 54.4%
Under 1	1.90 52.6%

Match center

Dukagjini

Country Kosovo

FC Lugano

Country Switzerland

Match center

Dukagjini

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Dukagjini 0:1 FC Lugano

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

0.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

0 Points

FC Lugano

W W L W W

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano 1:0 Dukagjini

14.08 18:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano 4:2 Tsele

07.08 18:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano 0:5 Tsele

24.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano 1:0 Mlada Boleslav

03.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano 3:0 HJK helsinki

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDukagjini - FC Lugano

Dukagjini

1 matches total

FC Lugano

Dukagjini: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

FC Lugano: 1 (100%)

Biggest win FC Lugano 0:1 (23.07 17:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 23.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Dukagjini

0:1

FC Lugano