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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Not started

UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Copenhagen - Polessya

World Football
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
- : -
Not started
Polessya
Polessya
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 FC Copenhagen54%

Pure model vs market (1 · FC Copenhagen): model 53% · market 55% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · FC Copenhagen54.4%
X · draw23.6%
2 · Polessya22.0%

Model estimate: win FC Copenhagen 54.4%, draw 23.6%, win Polessya 22.0%. Model favourite — FC Copenhagen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Copenhagen - Polessya July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: FC Copenhagen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.67 / X 3.85 / 2 4.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 55.4%
X 24.0%
2 20.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.40 ↑ 1.70
1X2 X 4.20 ↓ 3.90
1X2 P2 6.80 ↓ 4.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

FC Copenhagen - Polessya

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Copenhagen 54.4% 54.4% market and model agree
Draw 23.8% 23.6% draw risk
Polessya 21.8% 22.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.4% / 23.6% / 22.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,643 / 1,477 FC Copenhagen / Polessya
RD 143 / 168 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,357-1,929 / 1,141-1,813 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.50 Fonbet · no value · model 22.0%
X 3.85 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 54.4%
Double chance
12 1.22 Fonbet · no value · model 76.4%
1X 1.16 Fonbet · no value · model 78.0%
X2 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 45.6%
Handicap
2 -1 1.65 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.00 Fonbet · line only
2 0 3.25 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.15 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.20 45.5% 2.21 45.3%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.22 82.0%
1x 1.16 86.2%
x2 2.07 48.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.20 45.5%
X 2.47 40.5%
4.52 22.1%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.56 64.1%
Over 1.5 2.32 43.1%
Under 1 2.32 43.1%
Under 1.5 1.56 64.1%
Match center
FC Copenhagen
Country Denmark
Polessya
Country Ukraine
Match center
FC Copenhagen
D D L
23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen 3:3 Polessya
24.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen 1:1 Real BetisReal Betis
03.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen 1:2 Jagiellonia
0 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.7 Scored
2.0 Conceded
2 Points
Polessya
D L L L W
23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Polessya 3:3 FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen
28.08 18:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Polessya 2:3 FiorentinaFiorentina
21.08 18:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Polessya 0:3 FiorentinaFiorentina
14.08 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Polessya 1:2 PaksPaks
07.08 18:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Polessya 3:0 PaksPaks
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.8 Scored
2.2 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Copenhagen - Polessya

FC Copenhagen
1 matches total
Polessya
FC Copenhagen: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Polessya: 0 (0%)
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (3:3, 23.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 3:3 (23.07 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 3

Match history

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen
3:3
Polessya