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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Fiorentina - Crystal Palace

World Football
Stadium Artemio Franki
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
2 : 1
Finished
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Crystal Palace — 41%

1 · Fiorentina33.4%
X · draw25.8%
2 · Crystal Palace40.8%

Model estimate: win Fiorentina 33.4%, draw 25.8%, win Crystal Palace 40.8%. Model favourite — Crystal Palace.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Crystal Palace April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Crystal Palace.

Strongest: Crystal Palace - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.05 / X 3.32 / 2 2.35
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 31.1% / X 28.5% / Crystal Palace 40.5%
  • Glicko: Fiorentina 33.4% / X 25.8% / Crystal Palace 40.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 31.1%
X 28.6%
2 40.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 46.1%
Under 2.5 53.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 5/7
Confidence 40.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Artemio Franki (Florentsiya)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Crystal Palace 41%
💹 Market Crystal Palace 4045%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Fiorentina - Crystal Palace

Fiorentina: Win 3.10 Fiorentina: Draw 3.40 Crystal Palace Win: 2.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.08 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina menshe 0.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total gol…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
17' 17' Normal Goal | I. Sarr | assist/sub out: D. Munoz R. Hranáč Crystal Palace
30' 30' Substitution 1 | A. Wharton | assist/sub out: J. Lerma Crystal Palace
30' 30' Penalty | A. Gudmundsson J. Le Cardinal Fiorentina
40' 40' Yellow Card | Y. Pino Crystal Palace
40' 40' Yellow Card | M. Pongracic V. Milosavljevic Fiorentina
41' 41' Substitution 2 | M. Lacroix | assist/sub out: C. Riad M. Valinčić Crystal Palace
45+5' 45+5' Yellow Card | P. Comuzzo Fiorentina
46' 46' Substitution 1 | N. Fagioli | assist/sub out: C. Ndour Dário Essugo Fiorentina
Metric Fiorentina Crystal Palace SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.92 1.34 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 1 final
Shots off target 4 5 final
Shots on target 6 3 final
Udary vsego 16 9 final
Fouls soversheno 14 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 3 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Fiorentina #1 D. Henderson, #2 D. Munoz, #3 Tyrick Mitchell, #5 M. Lacroix, #7 I. Sarr, #10 Y. Pino, #14 J. Mateta, #18 Daichi Kamada, #20 A. Wharton, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #26 Chris Richards
Crystal Palace #5 M. Pongracic, #6 L. Ranieri, #8 R. Mandragora, #10 A. GuG°mundsson, #15 P. Comuzzo, #17 J. Harrison, #19 M. Solomon, #21 R. Gosens, #43 David de Gea, #44 N. Fagioli, #91 R. Piccoli
Player Team Metric SStats
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Dribling popytki 4
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Dribling uspeshno 4
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Fouls na igroke 3
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace football.player.goals 1
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Seyvy 0
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 75
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Klyuchevye pasy 22
A. GuG°mundsson Crystal Palace Pasy vsego 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Fiorentina 32.1% 33.4%
Draw 30.3% 25.8% draw risk
Crystal Palace 37.6% 40.8% market and model agree
xG - 1.26 : 1.42
Total 2.5 Over 38.9% - Under 61.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.4% / 25.8% / 40.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,775 / 1,745 Fiorentina / Crystal Palace
RD 106 / 113 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.35 market consensus · no value · model 40.8%
X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.05 market consensus · no value · model 33.4%
Double chance
X2 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.6%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 74.2%
1X 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 59.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
Under 2.5 1.76 market consensus · value +7.5% · model 61.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.05 32.8% 2.57 38.9% 3.28 30.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.48 28.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4%
2.26 44.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.34 42.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.35 42.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 2.03 49.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.76 56.8% 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.81 55.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.60 62.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.33 75.2%
Over 1.75 — — 1.42 70.4%
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% —
Over 3.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.84 54.4% —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
Fiorentina
Founded 1926
Crystal Palace
Founded 1861
Match center
Fiorentina
L W W L W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 0:3 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:1 RakuvRakuv
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:1 RakuvRakuv
26.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 2:4 Jagiellonia
19.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina 3:0 Jagiellonia
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
9 Points
Crystal Palace
W W D W D
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 3:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:1 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 0:0 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:0 ZrinjskiZrinjski
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 1:1 ZrinjskiZrinjski
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Crystal Palace

Fiorentina
1 matches total
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Crystal Palace: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Kristal Pelas 0:3 (09.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 09.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Fiorentina
0:3
Kristal Pelas
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.