UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Fiorentina — 63%
Model estimate: win Fiorentina 62.6%, draw 21.0%, win Jagiellonia 16.4%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Fiorentina: Win 1.51 Fiorentina: Draw 4.54 Jagiellonia Win: 6.15 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.72 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.16 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina bolshe 1.5: 1.59 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina menshe 1.5: 2.41 Individualnyy total golov …
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.49 67.1% | 1.49 67.1% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.48 67.6% | 1.53 65.4% | |
| X | 4.35 23.0% | 4.35 23.0% | 4.54 22.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.60 21.7% |
| 5.90 17.0% | 5.50 18.2% | 6.30 15.9% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.75 17.4% | 6.30 15.9% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.93 51.8% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.92 52.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.94 51.6% |
| yes | 1.77 56.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.89 52.9% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.50 40.0% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.63 38.0% |
| home_away | 1.15 87.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% |
| home_draw | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.13 88.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — | 1.19 84.0% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.67 59.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.93 51.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.70 37.0% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 4.33 23.1% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 46.5% | — | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.45 69.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.17 85.5% | — | — |
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Dynamo Kyiv
AEK Afiny
Maynts
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
AZ Alkmar
Rayo Vallecano
KuPS
Shkendija
Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Fiorentina - Jagiellonia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
