UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Fiorentina — 48%
Model estimate: win Fiorentina 48.2%, draw 24.8%, win Rakow Czestochowa 27.0%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Fiorentina: Win 1.95 Fiorentina: Draw 3.45 Raków Częstochowa Win: 4.31 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.27 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina bolshe 1.5: 2.19 Individualnyy total golov Fiorentina menshe 1.5: 1.72 Individualnyy total …
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.87 53.5% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.48 28.7% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 4.00 25.0% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.26 23.5% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.35 23.0% | 4.20 23.8% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.79 55.9% | 1.78 56.2% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.00 50.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.19 84.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — | 1.34 74.6% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.44 69.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.04 49.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.85 26.0% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.70 58.8% | 1.86 53.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — | — |
Fiorentina
Rakow Czestochowa
Fiorentina
Dynamo Kyiv
AEK Afiny
Rakow Czestochowa
Zrinjski
Sparta Praga
Sigma Olomouts
Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Rakow Czestochowa
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Fiorentina - Rakow Czestochowa breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
