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UEFA Europa Conference League World

30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys

World Football

FK Tobol Kostanay

- : -

Not started

Panevėžys

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 FK Tobol Kostanay — 72%

Pure model vs market (1 · FK Tobol Kostanay): model 45% · market 74% Δ −29 pp model estimates below the market

1 · FK Tobol Kostanay ✓ Pick72.3%

market74%

X · draw17.9%

market18%

2 · Panevėžys9.8%

market9%

Model estimate: win FK Tobol Kostanay 72.3%, draw 17.9%, win Panevėžys 9.8%. Model favourite — FK Tobol Kostanay.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1FK Tobol Kostanay (odds1.25) Score 3:0 Over 2.5 (odds1.70) Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.75) confidence 72%

• liniya na pik P1 1.38→1.25 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
• Model backs FK Tobol Kostanay: probability 72% vs 80% on the line (odds 1.25)
• no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 3:0
• Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.70)
• Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 3:0 (diff +3) covers the line (odds 1.75).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FK Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: FK Tobol Kostanay. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.25 / X 5.20 / 2 10.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.8%

1 ✓ Pick 73.6%

X 17.7%

2 8.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.38 ↓ 1.25

1X2 X 4.30 ↑ 5.20

1X2 P2 7.50 ↑ 10.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay 2 : 1 Panevėžys

11.24

X5.45

211.90

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Start 30.07.2026 17:00 UTC

Match center

FK Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FK Tobol Kostanay 74.0% 72.3% market and model agree

Draw 17.6% 17.9% draw risk

Panevėžys 8.5% 9.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 72.3% / 17.9% / 9.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,519 / 1,481 FK Tobol Kostanay / Panevėžys

RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 937-2,102 / 898-2,063 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 5.20 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 72.3%

Double chance

12 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 82.1%

1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 90.2%

X2 3.55 Fonbet · no value · model 27.7%

Handicap

2 -1 2.80 Fonbet · line only

2 0 7.20 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.40 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.05 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.02 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.55 64.5%	1.49 67.1%
yes	2.25 44.4%	2.52 39.7%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet
12	1.13 88.5%
1x	1.01 99.0%
x2	3.55 28.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.70 58.8%
X	2.57 38.9%
	9.80 10.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.61 62.1%
Under 1	2.24 44.6%

Match center

FK Tobol Kostanay

Country Kazakhstan

Panevėžys

Country Lithuania

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-1-0, avg 2.0 gls

2026-07-23 · Tobol Kostanay 1:1 Panevezhis

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.42 (Winline) · X 5.1 (Pari) · 2 10.5 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.28	5.1	10
Winline	1.42	4.6	7.8
Fonbet	1.28	5.1	10
Betcity	1.28	4.9	10.5
Liga Stavok	1.38	4.6	7.8

Source: ruscore · line comparison

FK Tobol Kostanay

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Tobol Kostanay 1:1 Panevėžys

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Panevėžys

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Panevėžys 1:1 FK Tobol Kostanay

0 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

1 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFK Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys

FK Tobol Kostanay

1 matches total

Panevėžys

FK Tobol Kostanay: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Panevėžys: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 23.07 17:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (23.07 17:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

23.07 17:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

FK Tobol Kostanay

1:1

Panevėžys