PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

FSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg

World Football
Stadium Meva Arena
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
2 : 0
Finished
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 FSV Mainz 05 — 43%

1 · FSV Mainz 0543.1%
X · draw25.5%
2 · Strasbourg31.5%

Model estimate: win FSV Mainz 05 43.1%, draw 25.5%, win Strasbourg 31.5%. Model favourite — FSV Mainz 05.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Strongest: FSV Mainz 05 - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.23 / X 3.36 / 2 3.22
  • 1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 42.5% / X 28.1% / Strasbourg 29.4%
  • Glicko: FSV Mainz 05 43.1% / X 25.5% / Strasbourg 31.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 42.4%
X 28.2%
2 29.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 49.7%
Under 2.5 50.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Meva Arena (Maynts)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FSV Mainz 05 43%
💹 Market FSV Mainz 05 4247%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg

FSV Mainz 05: Win 2.25 FSV Mainz 05: Draw 3.20 Strasbourg Win: 3.30 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.85 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Normal Goal FSV Mainz 05
19' 19' Normal Goal | S. Posch | assist/sub out: Paul Nebel K. Mitoma FSV Mainz 05
31' 31' Yellow Card | G. Doué Strasbourg
64' 64' Substitution 2 | G. Yassine | assist/sub out: E. Emegha Strasbourg
64' 64' Substitution 3 | M. Oyedele | assist/sub out: D. Moreira Strasbourg
69' 69' Substitution 2 | Nelson Weiper | assist/sub out: Armindo Sieb FSV Mainz 05
69' 69' Substitution 3 | P. Mwene | assist/sub out: Nikolas Veratschnig FSV Mainz 05
70' 70' Substitution 4 | Sota Kawasaki | assist/sub out: W. Boving FSV Mainz 05
Metric FSV Mainz 05 Strasbourg SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.61 1 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final
Shots off target 6 5 final
Shots on target 6 2 final
Udary vsego 18 9 final
Fouls soversheno 16 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Offsides 1 3 final
FSV Mainz 05 #2 A. Omobamidele, #3 B. Chilwell, #6 I. Doukoure, #8 M. Oyedele, #19 J. Enciso, #20 M. Godo, #22 G. Doué, #29 Samir El Mourabet, #32 Valentín Barco, #39 Mike Penders, #80 G. Yassine
Strasbourg #2 Phillipp Mwene, #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #24 S. Kawasaki, #30 S. Widmer, #31 D. Kohr, #33 D. Batz, #44 N. Weiper
Player Team Metric SStats
Fabio Moreno Fell Seyvy 0
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 football.player.assists 0
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Dribling popytki 6
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Fouls soversheno 2
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Seyvy 0
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Klyuchevye pasy 76
A. Omobamidele FSV Mainz 05 Reyting (staryy) 7.3
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FSV Mainz 05 43.0% 43.1% market and model agree
Draw 28.1% 25.5% draw risk
Strasbourg 28.9% 31.5%
xG - 1.49 : 1.23
Total 2.5 Over 50.0% - Under 50.0%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.1% / 25.5% / 31.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,839 / 1,829 FSV Mainz 05 / Strasbourg
RD 125 / 123 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.22 market consensus · no value · model 31.5%
X 3.36 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
Double chance
X2 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 57.0%
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 68.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 50.0%
Under 2.5 1.90 market consensus · no value · model 50.0%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.00 50.0% 2.12 47.2% 2.31 43.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.50 28.6% 3.44 29.1% 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.25 30.8%
3.45 29.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.26 30.7% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.03 49.3% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.77 56.5% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.55 64.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.70 27.0% — —
Under 2.5 1.95 51.3% 1.99 50.3% —
Under 3.5 1.35 74.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
FSV Mainz 05
Founded 1905
Strasbourg
Founded 1906
Match center
FSV Mainz 05
W D W D L
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 Sigma OlomoutsSigma Olomouts
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 0:0 Sigma OlomoutsSigma Olomouts
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 SamsunsporSamsunspor
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Lech Poznan
27.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
8 Points
Strasbourg
D W W W W
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 1:1 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 2:1 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 3:1 BreidablikBreidablik
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 1:0 AberdeenAberdeen
27.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 2:1 Kristal PelasKristal Pelas
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFSV Mainz 05 - Strasbourg

FSV Mainz 05
0 matches total
Strasbourg
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.