UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Fiorentina — 44%
Model estimate: win Jagiellonia 30.5%, draw 25.7%, win Fiorentina 43.8%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Jagiellonia: Win 2.98 Jagiellonia: Draw 3.26 Fiorentina Win: 2.52 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.95 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.92 Individualnyy total golov Jagiellonia bolshe 1.5: 2.66 Individualnyy total golov Jagiellonia menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total gol…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.86 35.0% | 2.75 36.4% | 3.02 33.1% | 2.88 34.7% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.95 33.9% | |
| X | 3.25 30.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.28 30.5% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.20 31.3% |
| 2.42 41.3% | 2.42 41.3% | 2.53 39.5% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.50 40.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Betway | Bwin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% |
| yes | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.68 59.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.53 65.4% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.57 63.7% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.14 87.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.30 76.9% | — | 1.26 79.4% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.33 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.93 51.8% | 1.98 50.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.40 29.4% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | — |
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
AZ Alkmar
Rayo Vallecano
KuPS
Shkendija
Strasbourg
Fiorentina
Dynamo Kyiv
AEK Afiny
Maynts
Full head-to-head historyJagiellonia - Fiorentina
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Jagiellonia - Fiorentina breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
