UEFA Europa Conference League
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lech Poznan.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Lech Poznan: Win 2.65 Lech Poznan: Draw 3.38 Shakhtar Donetsk Win: 2.79 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.98 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.90 Individualnyy total golov Lech Poznan bolshe 1.5: 2.47 Individualnyy total golov Lech Poznan menshe 1.5: 1.58 Individualnyy tot…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.52 39.7% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.45 40.8% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.37 29.7% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.40 29.4% |
| 2.66 37.6% | 2.71 36.9% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.63 38.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.05 48.8% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.10 47.6% |
| yes | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.72 58.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.50 66.7% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.48 67.6% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| home_draw | 1.45 69.0% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.43 69.9% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.14 87.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.30 76.9% | — | 1.26 79.4% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.33 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.94 51.6% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.00 11.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.45 29.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | — |
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
Lech Poznan
KuPS
KuPS
Sigma Olomouts
Maynts
Shakhtar Donetsk
HNK Rijeka
Hamrun Spartans
Shamrock Rovers
Breidablik
Full head-to-head historyLech Poznan - Shakhtar Donetsk
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Lech Poznan - Shakhtar Donetsk breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
