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30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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UEFA Europa Conference League
Ludogorets - Hapoel Tel Aviv
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Ludogorets — 52%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ludogorets): model 34% · market 53% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Ludogorets 51.7%, draw 23.7%, win Hapoel Tel Aviv 24.6%. Model favourite — Ludogorets.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Ludogorets - Hapoel Tel Aviv July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Ludogorets. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.75 / X 3.90 / 2 4.05
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.5%
1
53.2%
X
23.9%
2
23.0%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
1.70
↑ 1.75
1X2 X
3.85
↑ 3.90
1X2 P2
4.00
↓ 3.95
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Ludogorets
1
:
1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
11.74
X3.82
24.19
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Ludogorets - Hapoel Tel Aviv
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
Movement
Overview
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Ludogorets
52.8%
51.7%
market and model agree
Draw
23.7%
23.7%
draw risk
Hapoel Tel Aviv
23.5%
24.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.7% / 23.7% / 24.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,438 / 1,648
Ludogorets / Hapoel Tel Aviv
RD
135 / 261
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,168-1,708 / 1,125-2,170
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.05
Fonbet · no value · model 24.6%
X
3.90
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.75
Fonbet · no value · model 51.7%
Double chance
12
1.20
Fonbet · no value · model 76.3%
1X
1.20
Fonbet · no value · model 75.4%
X2
1.95
Fonbet · no value · model 48.3%
Handicap
2 -1
1.55
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
2.03
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.00
Fonbet · line only
2 0
2.90
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.80
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.90
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.95
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.75
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 1.92 52.1% |
| yes | 1.75 57.1% | 1.82 55.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% |
| 1x | 1.19 84.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| x2 | 1.96 51.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.36 42.4% | |
| X | 2.28 43.9% |
| 4.61 21.7% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.72 58.1% |
| Under 1 | 2.05 48.8% |
Match center
Ludogorets
Country
Bulgaria
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Country
Israel
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 0-0-1, avg 2.0 gls
2026-07-23 · Ludogorets Razgrad 0:2 Khapoel Tel-Aviv
Source: ruscore
Odds · 4 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.79 (Winline) · X 4 (Winline) · 2 4.1 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.73 | 3.95 | 4 |
| Winline | 1.79 | 4 | 4.1 |
| Fonbet | 1.73 | 3.95 | 4 |
| Betcity | 1.76 | 4 | 3.8 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Ludogorets
L
Ludogorets
0:2
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Hapoel Tel Aviv
W
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2:0
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLudogorets - Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ludogorets
1
matches total
Ludogorets: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Hapoel Tel Aviv: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Hapoel Tel Aviv 0:2 (23.07 17:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (0:2, 23.07 17:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Ludogorets
0:2
Hapoel Tel Aviv
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