UEFA Europa Conference League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Rakow Czestochowa — 39%
Model estimate: win Rakow Czestochowa 38.7%, draw 25.7%, win Fiorentina 35.6%. Model favourite — Rakow Czestochowa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rakow Czestochowa.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Raków Częstochowa: Win 2.61 Raków Częstochowa: Draw 3.31 Fiorentina Win: 2.87 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.08 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.79 Individualnyy total golov Raków Częstochowa bolshe 1.5: 2.59 Individualnyy total golov Raków Częstochowa menshe 1.5: 1.53 …
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.40 41.7% | 2.49 40.2% | 2.58 38.8% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.50 40.0% | |
| X | 3.25 30.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.24 30.9% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.25 30.8% |
| 2.88 34.7% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.99 33.4% | 2.88 34.7% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.92 34.3% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.95 51.3% | 2.15 46.5% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% |
| yes | 1.75 57.1% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.74 57.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.55 64.5% | 1.54 64.9% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.44 69.4% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.16 86.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 1.97 50.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.93 51.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — | — |
Rakow Czestochowa
Fiorentina
Rakow Czestochowa
Fiorentina
Zrinjski
Sparta Praga
Fiorentina
Rakuv
Dynamo Kyiv
Full head-to-head historyRakow Czestochowa - Fiorentina
Fiorentina
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Rakow Czestochowa - Fiorentina breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
Juan Martinez Munuera