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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
09.04.2026 16:45 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens FC

World Football
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 0
Finished
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Rayo Vallecano — 46%

1 · Rayo Vallecano46.4%
X · draw24.5%
2 · AEK Athens FC29.1%

Model estimate: win Rayo Vallecano 46.4%, draw 24.5%, win AEK Athens FC 29.1%. Model favourite — Rayo Vallecano.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens FC April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rayo Vallecano.

Strongest: Rayo Vallecano - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.29 / 2 4.15
  • 1X2 market: Rayo Vallecano 48.5% / X 28.7% / AEK Athens FC 22.8%
  • Glicko: Rayo Vallecano 46.4% / X 24.5% / AEK Athens FC 29.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 48.5%
X 28.7%
2 22.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 44.0%
Under 2.5 56.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 47.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Stadium Kampo-de-Valekas (Madrid)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rayo Vallecano 46%
💹 Market Rayo Vallecano 4849%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Rayo Vallecano - AEK Athens FC

Rayo Vallecano: Win 1.91 Rayo Vallecano: Draw 3.30 AEK Athens FC Win: 4.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.15 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Rayo Vallecano menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individua…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
2' 2' Normal Goal | Ilias Akhomach | assist/sub out: Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano
17' 17' Yellow Card | M. Nikolic AEK Athens FC
20' 20' Goal Disallowed - offside | Florian Lejeune Yuki Karatsu Rayo Vallecano
45+2' 45+2' Normal Goal | Unai López Rayo Vallecano
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Petros Mantalos | assist/sub out: Răzvan Marin Marcos Mejía AEK Athens FC
56' 56' Substitution 1 | Unai López | assist/sub out: Pedro Díaz Rayo Vallecano
56' 56' Substitution 2 | Ilias Akhomach | assist/sub out: Alemão Rayo Vallecano
61' 61' Yellow Card | Barnabás Varga K. Letica AEK Athens FC
Metric Rayo Vallecano AEK Athens FC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.31 1.11 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 6 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 4 2 final
Udary vsego 10 11 final
Fouls soversheno 15 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Rayo Vallecano #1 T. Strakosha, #2 H. Moukoudi, #3 Stavros Pilios, #11 A. Koita, #12 Lazaros Rota, #13 O. Pineda, #20 P. Mantalos, #25 B. Varga, #37 R. Pereyra, #44 F. Relvas
AEK Athens FC #2 A. Rațiu, #3 Pep Chavarría, #5 Luiz Felipe, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #12 Ilias Akhomach, #13 A. Batalla, #17 Unai López, #18 Álvaro García, #19 Jorge de Frutos, #24 F. Lejeune
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Angelopoulos Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
A. Brignoli Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Dribling popytki 10
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Dribling uspeshno 10
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Edinoborstva vyigrano 20
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Fouls soversheno 3
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Fouls na igroke 4
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano Seyvy 0
A. Koita Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 87
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rayo Vallecano 48.7% 46.4% market and model agree
Draw 28.9% 24.5% draw risk
AEK Athens FC 22.4% 29.1%
xG - 1.62 : 1.23
Total 2.5 Over 53.3% - Under 46.7%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 46.4% / 24.5% / 29.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,773 / 1,803 Rayo Vallecano / AEK Athens FC
RD 130 / 109 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.15 market consensus · no value · model 29.1%
X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 46.4%
Double chance
X2 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
1X 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 70.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.89 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.24 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.15 market consensus · value +14.7% · model 53.3%
Under 2.5 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.81 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.98 50.5% 1.96 51.0% 1.99 50.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.36 29.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.20 31.3%
3.90 25.6% 4.20 23.8% 4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8% 4.45 22.5% 4.20 23.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.77 56.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.04 96.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — — 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Over 2.25 — 1.96 51.0% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% 2.04 49.0% —
Over 3.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.94 51.6% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
Founded 1924
AEK Athens FC
Founded 1924
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
L W W W L
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 0:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 3:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 3:0 DritaDrita
11.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 2:1 Jagiellonia
27.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 1:2 Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
AEK Athens FC
L W W W W
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 0:2 TseleTsele
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 4:0 TseleTsele
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 3:2 Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova
11.12 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 2:1 SamsunsporSamsunspor
27.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AEK Athens FC 1:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
12 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.