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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar

World Football
Stadium Meyski im. Khenrika Reymana
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
3 : 0
Finished
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Shakhtar Donetsk — 41%

1 · Shakhtar Donetsk41.2%
X · draw25.3%
2 · AZ Alkmaar33.6%

Model estimate: win Shakhtar Donetsk 41.2%, draw 25.3%, win AZ Alkmaar 33.6%. Model favourite — Shakhtar Donetsk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Shakhtar Donetsk.

Strongest: Shakhtar Donetsk - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.25 / X 3.39 / 2 3.15
  • 1X2 market: Shakhtar Donetsk 42.1% / X 27.8% / AZ Alkmaar 30.1%
  • Glicko: Shakhtar Donetsk 41.2% / X 25.3% / AZ Alkmaar 33.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 42.1%
X 27.9%
2 30.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 50.9%
Under 2.5 49.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 40.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Meyski im. Khenrika Reymana (Krakov)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Shakhtar Donetsk 41%
💹 Market Shakhtar Donetsk 4208%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar

Shakhtar Donetsk: Win 2.15 Shakhtar Donetsk: Draw 3.40 AZ Alkmaar Win: 3.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov Shakhtar Donetsk bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Shakhtar Donetsk menshe 1.5: 1.67 Indi…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
24' 24' Substitution 1 | Isaque Silva | assist/sub out: A. Bondarenko Shakhtar Donetsk
46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Maikuma | assist/sub out: E. Dijkstra AZ Alkmaar
48' 48' Yellow Card | Penetra AZ Alkmaar
55' 55' Substitution 4 | I. Sadiq | assist/sub out: R. Daal Igor Kudryashov AZ Alkmaar
59' 59' Yellow Card | P. Henrique Shakhtar Donetsk
64' 64' Yellow Card | M. de Wit AZ Alkmaar
72' 72' Normal Goal | Pedrinho Bruno Henrique Shakhtar Donetsk
73' 73' Substitution 7 | Weslley Patati | assist/sub out: A. Oufkir AZ Alkmaar
Metric Shakhtar Donetsk AZ Alkmaar SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.78 0.49 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final
Shots off target 2 3 final
Shots on target 6 3 final
Udary vsego 12 9 final
Fouls soversheno 11 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Shakhtar Donetsk #3 W. Goes, #5 Alexandre Penetra, #7 Weslley Patati, #9 T. Parrott, #10 S. Mijnans, #11 I. Sadiq, #26 K. Smit, #34 M. de Wit, #41 J. Zoet
AZ Alkmaar #5 V. Bondar, #10 Pedrinho, #11 Newerton, #13 P. Henrique, #14 Isaque Silva, #17 V. Tobias, #19 Kaua Elias, #22 M. Matviienko, #27 O. Ocheretko, #30 Alisson, #31 D. Riznyk
Player Team Metric SStats
Denys Tvardovskyi Seyvy 0
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk football.player.assists 0
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Dribling popytki 1
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Edinoborstva vsego 1
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Seyvy 0
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk football.player.minutes_played 90
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Klyuchevye pasy 66
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Reyting (staryy) 5.9
Alexandre Penetra Shakhtar Donetsk Bloki 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shakhtar Donetsk 40.4% 41.2% market and model agree
Draw 29.1% 25.3% draw risk
AZ Alkmaar 30.4% 33.6%
xG - 1.48 : 1.31
Total 2.5 Over 43.4% - Under 56.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.2% / 25.3% / 33.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,764 / 1,781 Shakhtar Donetsk / AZ Alkmaar
RD 126 / 101 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.15 market consensus · no value · model 33.6%
X 3.39 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%
Double chance
X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 66.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.19 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.73 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · value +9.8% · model 56.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.56 39.1% 2.44 41.0% 2.23 44.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.45 29.0% 3.45 29.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.30 30.3%
2.56 39.1% 2.85 35.1% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.25 44.4% 2.14 46.7% 2.09 47.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5% 2.12 47.2%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.69 59.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.48 67.6% 1.35 74.1% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Over 2.5 1.73 57.8% 1.99 50.3% —
Over 2.75 — 2.07 48.3% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.95 25.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% 1.91 52.4% —
Under 2.75 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
Founded 1936
AZ Alkmaar
Founded 1967
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
L W D W W
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 1:2 Lech Poznan
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:1 Lech Poznan
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 2:0 Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans
27.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 2:1 Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
AZ Alkmaar
W W W L D
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar 4:0 Sparta PragaSparta Praga
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar 2:1 Sparta PragaSparta Praga
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar 4:0 FC NoahFC Noah
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar 0:1 FC NoahFC Noah
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
AZ Alkmaar 0:0 Jagiellonia
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.