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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
semi-final. 1 match 30.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
30.04.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 1 match
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Shakhtar Donetsk - Crystal Palace

World Football
Referee Felix Zwayer
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
1 : 3
Finished
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Crystal Palace — 45%

1 · Shakhtar Donetsk28.1%
X · draw26.5%
2 · Crystal Palace45.4%

Model estimate: win Shakhtar Donetsk 28.1%, draw 26.5%, win Crystal Palace 45.4%. Model favourite — Crystal Palace.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Shakhtar Donetsk - Crystal Palace April 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Crystal Palace.

Strongest: Crystal Palace - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.09 / X 3.30 / 2 1.96
  • 1X2 market: Shakhtar Donetsk 23.2% / X 28.7% / Crystal Palace 48.2%
  • Glicko: Shakhtar Donetsk 28.1% / X 26.5% / Crystal Palace 45.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 39.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 23.1%
X 28.6%
2 48.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 42.6%
Under 2.5 57.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 46.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Stadium Meyski imeni Khenrika Reymana (Krakov, Poland), 29 842 zritelya (90% pri vmestimosti 33 326)
Referee Feliks Tsvayer (Berlin)
Start 30.04.2026 19:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Crystal Palace 45%
💹 Market Crystal Palace 4817%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Shakhtar Donetsk - Crystal Palace

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Shakhter - Kristal Pelas, 30 aprelya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Conference League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 1 match. Shakhter - Kristal Pelas, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:3
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 90
min Event Player Team
1' 1' Normal Goal | Ismaïla Sarr | assist/sub out: Jean Philippe Mateta I. Sarr Crystal Palace
31' 31' Yellow Card | Oleg Ocheretko O. Ocheretko Shakhtar Donetsk
38' 38' Yellow Card | Vinícius Tobias V. Tobias Shakhtar Donetsk
44' 44' Yellow Card | Yéremy Pino Y. Pino Crystal Palace
47' 47' Normal Goal | Oleg Ocheretko | assist/sub out: Kaua Elias O. Ocheretko Shakhtar Donetsk
52' 52' Yellow Card | Pedro Henrique P. Henrique Shakhtar Donetsk
56' 56' Yellow Card | Jaydee Canvot Jaydee Canvot Crystal Palace
58' 58' Normal Goal | Daichi Kamada Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace
Metric Shakhtar Donetsk Crystal Palace SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.06 2.31 final
Zablokirovannye udary 9 1 final
Shots off target 5 2 final
Shots on target 1 7 final
Udary vsego 15 10 final
Fouls soversheno 7 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Shakhtar Donetsk #1 D. Henderson, #2 D. Munoz, #3 Tyrick Mitchell, #5 M. Lacroix, #7 I. Sarr, #10 Y. Pino, #14 J. Mateta, #18 Daichi Kamada, #20 A. Wharton, #23 Jaydee Canvot, #26 Chris Richards
Crystal Palace #5 V. Bondar, #6 Marlon Gomes, #7 Eguinaldo, #10 Pedrinho, #13 P. Henrique, #17 V. Tobias, #19 Kaua Elias, #22 M. Matviienko, #27 O. Ocheretko, #30 Alisson, #31 D. Riznyk
Player Team Metric SStats
Denys Tvardovskyi Seyvy 0
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Seyvy 0
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Klyuchevye pasy 8
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Reyting (staryy) 6.2
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Otbory vsego 7
A. Bondarenko Crystal Palace Yellow cards 1
A. Ghram Crystal Palace Seyvy 0
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.assists 0
A. Wharton Crystal Palace football.player.minutes_played 90
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Shakhtar Donetsk 25.1% 28.1%
Draw 27.9% 26.5% draw risk
Crystal Palace 47.0% 45.4% market and model agree
xG - 1.07 : 1.43
Total 2.5 Over 39.1% - Under 60.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.1% / 26.5% / 45.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,799 / 1,731 Shakhtar Donetsk / Crystal Palace
RD 114 / 108 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 45.4%
X 3.30 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.09 market consensus · no value · model 28.1%
Double chance
X2 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.6%
1X 1.81 market consensus · no value · model 54.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.89 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 39.1%
Under 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 60.9%
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.93 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.75 26.7% 4.20 23.8% 3.90 25.6% 4.20 23.8% 4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.42 29.2% 3.10 32.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.25 30.8%
1.97 50.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.84 54.4%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.96 51.0% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.96 51.0% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.20 83.3%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.80 55.6% 1.86 53.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5%
Over 1.75 — 1.50 66.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.66 60.2%
Over 2.25 — 2.00 50.0%
Over 2.5 2.05 48.8% —
Over 3.5 3.70 27.0% —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% —
Under 2.5 1.75 57.1% —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% —
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
Founded 1936
Crystal Palace
Founded 1861
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Crystal Palace

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Evann Gessan Eddi Nketia Sheyk Dukure
Shakhtar Donetsk Founded: 1936
Crystal Palace Founded: 1861
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
D W L W D
16.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 2:2 AZ AlkmarAZ Alkmar
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:0 AZ AlkmarAZ Alkmar
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 1:2 Lech Poznan
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:1 Lech Poznan
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Crystal Palace
L W W D W
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 1:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 3:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:1 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 0:0 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Crystal Palace 2:0 ZrinjskiZrinjski
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
10 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Crystal Palace
Shakhtar Donetsk Team comparison Crystal Palace
12 Games 14
7 Wins 7
3 Draws 4
2 Losses 3
22 Scored 21
12 Conceded 10
24 Points 25
93.5 Attacks 134.33
44.75 Dangerous attacks 53.67
0 Big chances 0
13 Shots on goal 15.33
5.33 Shots on target 5.43
. 2 match Goly Ismaila Sarr Zhan-Filipp Mateta 0:1' Oleg Ocheretko Kauan Elias 1 47' Daiti Kamada 1:2 58' Yergen Strann Larsen Daiti Kamada 1:3 84' Nakazaniya Oleg Ocheretko 31' Vinisius Augusto 38' Yeremi Pino 44' Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 52' Dzheydi Kanvo 56'

Shakhter Kristal Pelas 12 Games 14 7 Wins 7 3 Draws 4 2 Losses 3 22 Scored 21 12 Conceded 10 24 Points 25 93.5 Attacks 134.33 44.75 Dangerous attacks 53.67 0 Big chances 0 13 Shots on goal 15.33 5.33 Udary v stvor 5.43 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.17 Uglovye 5.43 2.17 Offsaydy 1.93 9.75 Foly 11.86 62.92 % vladeniya myachom 57.71 2.17 Warnings 1.79 0.08 Sendoffs 0.07 Sleduyuschiy match 07.05.2026 Conference League Kristal Pelas –:– Shakhter semi-final. 2 match Goly Ismaila Sarr Zhan-Filipp Mateta 0:1' Oleg Ocheretko Kauan Elias 1 47' Daiti Kamada 1:2 58' Yergen Strann Larsen Daiti Kamada 1:3 84' Nakazaniya Oleg Ocheretko 31' Vinisius Augusto 38' Yeremi Pino 44' Pedro Enrike Azevedo Pereyra 52' Dzheydi Kanvo 56'