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Start
19.03.2026 20:00 UTC
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19.03.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa Conference League
Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznan
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznan March 19, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Shakhtar Donetsk.
Line favourite market consensus: Shakhtar Donetsk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.51 / 2 3.14
- 1X2 market: Shakhtar Donetsk 43.3% / X 26.8% / Lech Poznan 29.9%
- Total 2.5: over probability 53.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
43.3%
X
26.8%
2
29.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznan
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.14
market consensus · line only
X
3.51
market consensus · line only
1
2.17
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.67
market consensus · line only
12
1.28
market consensus · line only
1X
1.35
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.71
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.31
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.10
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.40
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.77
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.05
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.19
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.62
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.18 45.9% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.58 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.65 27.4% |
| 3.05 32.8% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.26 30.7% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.15 46.5% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.22 45.1% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.18 45.9% |
| yes | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.59 62.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.65 60.6% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.77 56.5% | 1.82 55.0% | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.90 34.5% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.50 18.2% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.00 10.0% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.85 26.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 2.08 48.1% | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.40 71.4% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.14 87.7% | — | — |
Match center
Shakhtar Donetsk
W
D
W
W
W
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:1
Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
0:0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
Shakhtar Donetsk
2:0
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
Shakhtar Donetsk
2:1
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
Shakhtar Donetsk
2:0
Breidablik
Breidablik
4
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.4
Conceded
13
Points
Lech Poznan
L
W
W
W
D
Lech Poznan
1:3
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
Lech Poznan
1:0
KuPS
KuPS
Lech Poznan
2:0
KuPS
KuPS
Lech Poznan
2:1
Sigma Olomouts
Sigma Olomouts
Lech Poznan
1:1
Maynts
Maynts
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyShakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznan
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
matches total
Shakhtar Donetsk: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lech Poznan: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Shakhtar Donetsk 3:1 (12.03 17:45 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
4 goals (3:1, 12.03 17:45 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Shakhtar Donetsk
3:1
Lech Poznan
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