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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg - FSV Mainz 05

World Football
Stadium Stad de la Meno
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
4 : 0
Finished
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Strasbourg — 51%

1 · Strasbourg50.6%
X · draw24.7%
2 · FSV Mainz 0524.7%

Model estimate: win Strasbourg 50.6%, draw 24.7%, win FSV Mainz 05 24.7%. Model favourite — Strasbourg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Strasbourg - FSV Mainz 05 April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Strasbourg.

Strongest: Strasbourg - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.84 / 2 4.53
  • 1X2 market: Strasbourg 54.6% / X 24.6% / FSV Mainz 05 20.9%
  • Glicko: Strasbourg 50.6% / X 24.7% / FSV Mainz 05 24.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 48.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 54.6%
X 24.6%
2 20.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 53.8%
Under 2.5 46.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/6
Confidence 54.9%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Stad de la Meno (Strasburg)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Strasbourg 51%
💹 Market Strasbourg 5458%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Strasbourg - FSV Mainz 05

Strasbourg: Win 1.70 Strasbourg: Draw 3.90 FSV Mainz 05 Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.75 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov Strasbourg bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Strasbourg menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:0
Events 22
Statistics 26
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
0' 0' Yellow Card | Robin Zentner FSV Mainz 05
19' 19' Yellow Card | Dominik Kohr P. Dorgu FSV Mainz 05
26' 26' Normal Goal | S. Nanasi Strasbourg
35' 35' Normal Goal | M. Godo | assist/sub out: J. Enciso Strasbourg
36' 36' Yellow Card | V. Barco Strasbourg
45' 45' Yellow Card | S. Nanasi Strasbourg
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Nelson Weiper | assist/sub out: Nadiem Amiri FSV Mainz 05
49' 49' Yellow Card | S. El Mourabet Strasbourg
Metric Strasbourg FSV Mainz 05 SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.89 0.24 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final
Shots off target 2 3 final
Shots on target 7 1 final
Udary vsego 10 7 final
Fouls soversheno 11 12 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 4 final
Strasbourg #2 A. Omobamidele, #3 B. Chilwell, #6 I. Doukoure, #7 Diego Moreira, #11 S. Nanasi, #19 J. Enciso, #20 M. Godo, #29 Samir El Mourabet, #32 Valentín Barco, #39 Mike Penders, #42 A. Ouattara
FSV Mainz 05 #2 Phillipp Mwene, #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #24 S. Kawasaki, #30 S. Widmer, #31 D. Kohr, #33 D. Batz, #44 N. Weiper
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 football.player.assists 0
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Dribling popytki 1
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Seyvy 0
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 football.player.minutes_played 18
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Klyuchevye pasy 10
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Bloki 1
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Otbory vsego 8
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Strasbourg 53.7% 50.6% market and model agree
Draw 25.0% 24.7% draw risk
FSV Mainz 05 21.3% 24.7%
xG - 1.63 : 1.06
Total 2.5 Over 48.9% - Under 51.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.6% / 24.7% / 24.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,802 / 1,867 Strasbourg / FSV Mainz 05
RD 117 / 119 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.53 market consensus · no value · model 24.7%
X 3.84 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 50.6%
Double chance
X2 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 49.4%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%
1X 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.10 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.18 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 48.9%
Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · weak value +5.2% · model 51.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.04 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.71 58.5% 1.89 52.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2%
X 3.80 26.3% 3.65 27.4% 4.00 25.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.95 25.3%
4.45 22.5% 4.05 24.7% 4.76 21.0% 4.33 23.1% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.95 51.3% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.15 46.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.10 47.6%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% —
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 1.99 50.3% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Strasbourg
Founded 1906
FSV Mainz 05
Founded 1905
Match center
Strasbourg
L D W W W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 0:2 MayntsMaynts
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 1:1 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 2:1 HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 3:1 BreidablikBreidablik
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg 1:0 AberdeenAberdeen
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
FSV Mainz 05
W W D W D
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 StrasbourgStrasbourg
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 Sigma OlomoutsSigma Olomouts
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 0:0 Sigma OlomoutsSigma Olomouts
18.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 SamsunsporSamsunspor
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Lech Poznan
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.2 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyStrasbourg - FSV Mainz 05

Strasbourg
1 matches total
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
FSV Mainz 05: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Maynts 0:2 (09.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 09.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Strasbourg
0:2
Maynts
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.