Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

UEFA Europa Conference League World

semi-final. 2 match 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

07.05.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano

World Football

Stadium Stad de la Meno

Referee I. Kruzliak

Strasbourg

0 : 1

Finished

Rayo Vallecano

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Strasbourg — 46%

1 · Strasbourg46.1%

X · draw24.5%

2 · Rayo Vallecano29.5%

Model estimate: win Strasbourg 46.1%, draw 24.5%, win Rayo Vallecano 29.5%. Model favourite — Strasbourg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano May 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Strasbourg.

Strongest: Strasbourg - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.60 / 2 3.79
1X2 market: Strasbourg 48.7% / X 26.3% / Rayo Vallecano 25.0%
Glicko: Strasbourg 46.1% / X 24.5% / Rayo Vallecano 29.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 60.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 48.6%

X 26.3%

2 25.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 51.4%

Under 2.5 48.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 54.7%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Stadium Meno (Strasburg, France), 31 071 zritel (119% pri vmestimosti 26 109)

Referee Ivan Kruzhlyak (Slovakia)

Start 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Strasbourg 46%

💹 Market Strasbourg 4865%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Strasbourg - Rayo Vallecano

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Strasburg - Rayo Valekano, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Conference League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 2 match. Strasburg - Rayo Valekano, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 12

Statistics 22

Lineups 43

min Event Player Team

25' 25' Yellow Card | B. Chilwell B. Chilwell Strasbourg

42' 42' Normal Goal | Alemao Alemão Rayo Vallecano

46' 46' Substitution 1 | B. Chilwell | assist/sub out: S. Nanasi B. Chilwell Strasbourg

65' 65' Substitution 1 | Alemao | assist/sub out: S. Camello Alemão Rayo Vallecano

67' 67' Substitution 2 | S. El Mourabet | assist/sub out: S. Amo-Ameyaw Samir El Mourabet Strasbourg

78' 78' Substitution 3 | J. de Frutos | assist/sub out: I. Balliu Jorge de Frutos Rayo Vallecano

78' 78' Substitution 2 | I. Palazon | assist/sub out: P. Diaz Isi Palazón Rayo Vallecano

80' 80' Yellow Card | Diego Moreira Diego Moreira Strasbourg

Metric Strasbourg Rayo Vallecano SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.6 1.73 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final

Shots off target 4 10 final

Shots on target 3 8 final

Udary vsego 11 22 final

Fouls soversheno 7 19 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Offsides 2 0 final

Strasbourg #3 B. Chilwell, #19 J. Enciso, #20 M. Godo, #29 Samir El Mourabet, #39 Mike Penders, #2 A. Omobamidele, #42 A. Ouattara, #6 I. Doukoure, #32 Valentín Barco, #7 Diego Moreira, #22 G. Doué

Rayo Vallecano #3 Pep Chavarría, #9 Alemão, #13 A. Batalla, #22 A. Espino, #23 Óscar Valentín, #6 P. Ciss, #7 Isi Palazón, #17 Unai López, #19 Jorge de Frutos, #24 F. Lejeune, #2 A. Rațiu

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

A. Batalla Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Espino Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

A. Espino Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 85

A. Rațiu Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

A. Rațiu Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 90

Alemão Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

Alemão Rayo Vallecano football.player.goals 1

Alemão Rayo Vallecano football.player.minutes_played 65

Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Strasbourg 49.3% 46.1% market and model agree

Draw 25.8% 24.5% draw risk

Rayo Vallecano 24.8% 29.5%

xG - 1.62 : 1.25

Total 2.5 Over 60.2% - Under 39.8%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 46.1% / 24.5% / 29.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,816 / 1,802 Strasbourg / Rayo Vallecano

RD 108 / 112 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 29.5%

X 7.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 46.1%

Double chance

X2 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 54.0%

12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 70.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.86 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.44 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.62 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.13 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.85 market consensus · value +11.4% · model 60.2%

Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%

Both teams to score

No 2.05 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.71 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.90 52.6%	1.99 50.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%
X	3.65 27.4%	3.78 26.5%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.50 28.6%
	3.70 27.0%	3.94 25.4%	3.75 26.7%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	3.70 27.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.03 49.3%	2.07 48.3%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.25 80.0%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.0	—	1.40 71.4%
Over 2.25	—	1.68 59.5%
Over 2.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Over 4.5	5.75 17.4%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.70 27.0%	—
Under 2.5	1.95 51.3%	—
Under 3.5	1.35 74.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—

Match center

Strasbourg

Founded 1906

Rayo Vallecano

Founded 1924

Match center

Strasbourg

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Rayo Vallecano

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Khoakin Panichelli Aaron Anselmino Travmirovannye Luis Felipe

Strasbourg Founded: 1906

Rayo Vallecano Founded: 1924

Match center

Strasbourg

L W L D W

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg 0:1 Rayo Vallecano

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg 4:0 Maynts

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg 0:2 Maynts

19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg 1:1 HNK Rijeka

12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg 2:1 HNK Rijeka

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Rayo Vallecano

W L W L W

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano 1:0 Strasbourg

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano 1:3 AEK Afiny

09.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano 3:0 AEK Afiny

19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano 0:1 Samsunspor

12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano 3:1 Samsunspor

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyStrasbourg - Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

1 matches total

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Rayo Vallecano: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Rayo Vallecano 0:1 (30.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 30.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League

Strasbourg

0:1

Rayo Vallecano

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Strasbourg

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Rayo Vallecano

13 Games 13

8 Wins 9

3 Draws 1

2 Losses 3

21 Scored 26

12 Conceded 12

27 Points 28

92.14 Attacks 83

39.57 Dangerous attacks 45.4

0 Big chances 0

11.71 Shots on goal 14.2

5.08 Shots on target 5.92

aleniya 0 Goly Aleshandre Zhuravski Floryan Lezhen 0:1 42' Nezabitye penalti Khulio Ensiso 90+4' Nakazaniya Ben Chiluell 25' Diegu Moreyra 80' Unay Lopes 85' Oskar Martin 86' Augusto Batalya 89'

Strasburg Rayo Valekano 13 Games 13 8 Wins 9 3 Draws 1 2 Losses 3 21 Scored 26 12 Conceded 12 27 Points 28 92.14 Attacks 83 39.57 Dangerous attacks 45.4 0 Big chances 0 11.71 Shots on goal 14.2 5.08 Udary v stvor 5.92 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.54 Uglovye 5.69 1.85 Offsaydy 1.69 10.46 Foly 13.31 58 % vladeniya myachom 55.62 2.69 Warnings 2.54 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Aleshandre Zhuravski Floryan Lezhen 0:1 42' Nezabitye penalti Khulio Ensiso 90+4' Nakazaniya Ben Chiluell 25' Diegu Moreyra 80' Unay Lopes 85' Oskar Martin 86' Augusto Batalya 89'