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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa - Bologna

World Futbol
Stadium Вилла Парк
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
4 : 0
Finished
Bologna
Bologna
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Aston Villa — 58%

1 · Aston Villa ✓ Прогноз58.1%
market60%
X · draw22.3%
market23%
2 · Bologna19.6%
market17%

Model estimate: win Aston Villa 58.1%, draw 22.3%, win Bologna 19.6%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Bologna 16 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.58 / X 4.12 / 2 5.60
  • 1X2 market: Aston Villa 60.0% / X 23.0% / Bologna 17.0%
  • Glicko: Aston Villa 58.1% / X 22.3% / Bologna 19.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 ✓ Прогноз 60.0%
X 23.0%
2 16.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 53.5%
Under 2.5 46.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 7/8
Confidence 64.0%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:0

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Вилла Парк (Бирмингем)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Aston Villa 58%
💹 Market Aston Villa 5996%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Aston Villa - Bologna

Aston Villa: Победа 1.57 Aston Villa: Ничья 4.10 Bologna Победа: 5.50 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.73 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.10 Индивидуальный тотал голов Aston Villa больше 1.5: 1.53 Индивидуальный тотал голов Aston Villa меньше 1.5: 2.38 Индивидуальный тотал голов …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:0
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 43
min Event Player Team
16' 16' Normal Goal | O. Watkins | assist/sub out: M. Rogers Ruien Zhang Aston Villa
23' 23' Penalty confirmed | M. Rogers Daniele Minighini Aston Villa
26' 26' Normal Goal | E. Buendia Allegra Mondo Aston Villa
29' 29' Yellow Card | F. Bernardeschi Filip Jørgensen Bologna
39' 39' Normal Goal | M. Rogers | assist/sub out: J. McGinn Daniele Minighini Aston Villa
46' 46' Substitution 1 | R. Freuler | assist/sub out: S. Sohm B. Ozer Bologna
46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Rowe | assist/sub out: R. Orsolini Bologna
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Joao Mario | assist/sub out: N. Zortea Bologna
Metric Aston Villa Bologna SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 2.49 0.8 final
Заблокированные удары 5 4 final
Удары мимо 1 3 final
Удары в створ 7 4 final
Удары всего 13 11 final
Фолы совершено 13 17 final
Желтые карточки 0 1 final
Офсайды 0 1 final
Aston Villa #2 M. Cash, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #14 Pau Torres, #23 E. Martinez, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers
Bologna #6 N. Moro, #8 R. Freuler, #9 S. Castro, #10 F. Bernardeschi, #11 J. Rowe, #13 F. Ravaglia, #16 N. Casale, #17 João Mário, #19 L. Ferguson, #33 Juan Miranda, #41 M. Vitík
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.assists 0
A. Onana Aston Villa Дриблинг попытки 7
A. Onana Aston Villa Единоборства всего 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Единоборства выиграно 9
A. Onana Aston Villa Фолы совершено 3
A. Onana Aston Villa Сейвы 0
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 78
A. Onana Aston Villa Точность пасов % 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Ключевые пасы 24
A. Onana Aston Villa Рейтинг (старый) 7.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Aston Villa 60.4% 58.1% market and model agree
Draw 23.3% 22.3% draw risk
Bologna 16.3% 19.6%
xG - 1.87 : 0.99
Total 2.5 Over 40.2% - Under 59.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 58.1% / 22.3% / 19.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,832 / 1,710 Aston Villa / Bologna
RD 121 / 111 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.60 market consensus · no value · model 19.6%
X 4.12 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 58.1%
Double chance
X2 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 41.9%
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 77.7%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 80.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.33 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 40.2%
Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · value +22.6% · model 59.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 1.56 64.1% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5%
Х 3.90 25.6% 4.30 23.3% 4.28 23.4% 3.90 25.6% 4.10 24.4% 4.20 23.8%
П2 5.80 17.2% 4.90 20.4% 6.04 16.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.50 18.2% 6.10 16.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.91 52.4% 2.05 48.8% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.78 56.2% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.35 42.6% 2.44 41.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.42 41.3% 2.30 43.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.16 86.2% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
ТБ 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
ТБ 1.25 — — 1.11 90.1%
ТБ 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.22 82.0%
ТБ 1.75 — — 1.27 78.7%
ТБ 2.5 1.80 55.6% — —
ТБ 2.75 — 1.97 50.8% —
ТБ 3.5 3.00 33.3% — —
ТБ 4.5 5.50 18.2% — —
ТМ 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
ТМ 1.5 3.70 27.0% — —
ТМ 2.5 2.00 50.0% — —
ТМ 2.75 — 1.93 51.8% —
ТМ 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
ТМ 4.5 1.14 87.7% — —
Match center
Aston Villa
Founded 1874
Bologna
Founded 1909
Match center
Aston Villa
W W W W W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 3:1 BolognaBologna
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 2:0 LilleLille
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 1:0 LilleLille
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 3:2 Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 1:0 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
15 Points
Bologna
L D W W W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Bologna 1:3 Aston VillaAston Villa
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Bologna 1:1 AS RomaAS Roma
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Bologna 1:0 BrannBrann
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Bologna 1:0 BrannBrann
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Bologna 3:0 Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Bologna

Aston Villa
2 matches total
Bologna
Aston Villa: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Aston Villa 3:1 (09.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 09.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa
3:1
Bologna
25.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa
1:0
Bologna
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.